East Coast Storm Update

NOAA OPC Forecast for 0000 UTC 15 March 2017

NOAA OPC Forecast for 0000 UTC 15 March 2017

A rapidly deepening storm low will move N-NE along the US East Coast from late Monday through early Wednesday. Within 36-48 hours winds will increase to 50-65 knots between 35N and 40N latitude from 62W-66W longitude with seas building to 10 meters (33 feet).  Also within 240 NM of the center and from 34N-44N between 59W-67W winds will be 40-55 knots.

Along the US Northeast coast heavy snow with Blizzard conditions are forecast.

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Rapidly developing hurricane force storm over western North Atlantic

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 0000UTC 11 March 2017

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 0000UTC 11 March 2017

The low pressure disturbance that moved off the Middle Atlantic Coast Friday is deepening rapidly and forecast within 24 hours to deepen to 948 mb hurricane force storm low  producing winds of 50-70 knots within 240 NM south and east of the center.

Learn more about the winter Hurricane Season.

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TC Enawo heads towards Madagascar

Satellite image TC Enawo

Satellite image TC Enawo

Tropical Cyclone Enawo was centered over the South Indian Ocean about 402NM north of Port Louis, Mauritius and was moving WSW slowly.  SST are warm (29-30C)so intensification is likely as it begins to move toward Madagascar. Max winds are likely to peak near 110 knots during the next 36 hour then weaken somewhat as it nears the coast of Madagascar by 1200UTC March 7th.

JTWC Track Forecast for TC Enawo

JTWC Track Forecast for TC Enawo

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938MB Hurricane Force Storm Forecast off Greenland

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 25 Feb 2017

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 25 Feb 2017

A rapidly deepening low over the central North Atlantic will move northeast then turn northwest. Expecting by 1200UTC 25 Feb 2017 938 MB hurricane force storm with winds 50-70knots and seas to 14 meters (about 46 feet)within 60NM north of the center  and between 240-480 NM south of the center (along the south coast of Greenland).

NOAA OPC Significant Wave Height Forecast 12Z 25 Feb 2017

NOAA OPC Significant Wave Height Forecast 12Z 25 Feb 2017

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TC Dineo deepening over Mozambique Channel

Meteosat Satellite Photo TC Dineo

Meteosat Satellite Photo TC Dineo

Tropical Cyclone Dineo at 1500UTC 14 Feb was centered about 78 NM west of Europa Island in the Mozambique Channel and was moving soutwestward slowly with max winds of about 55 knots. Conditions are favorable for development and Dineo is forecast to reach hurricane strength shortly and turn more towards the west making landfall over southern Mozambique around 1800UTC on the 15th with max winds of 70-80 knots. 

JTWC Forecast Track

JTWC Forecast Track

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Hurricane Force Storm South of Nova Scotia

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 0000Z 14 Feb 2017

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 0000Z 14 Feb 2017

968MB Storm low south of Nova Scotia continues to move towards the east-northeast at about 20 knots.  Winds of 50-65 knots are occurring within 360NM north and northeast of center with seas to 35 feet. Elsewhere winds were 40-50 knots  with seas to 25 feet within 480-540NM.

 

Learn more about these winter hurricane storms here:

NOAA Satellite Image

NOAA Satellite Image

 

 

 

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Rapidly deepening storm forecast off New England by early Monday

NOAA OPC Forecast Surface Map 1200 UTC Sunday Feb 12th

NOAA OPC Forecast Surface Map 1200 UTC Sunday Feb 12th

A rapidly deepening low is forecast to move off the southern coast of New England late Sunday night and Monday (Feb 12th-13th) producing storm force winds west and south of the center of 50-65 knots from late Monday through Tuesday  as it moves  eastward out over the western North Atlantic.   The strong winds will also build  significant wave heights to 40 feet / 12 meters.

NOAA Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 09 Feb 2017

NOAA Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 09 Feb 2017

 

 

The storm from yesterday (Feb 9th) as well as this one and perhaps several more this season are being enhanced by the warmer than normal SST off the US Coast north of Cape Hatteras.  Often, when this occurs, you can get rapidly developing storms during the latter part of the winter (Feb-Mar) that can produce very high winds and sometimes heavy snowfalls over parts of the Northeast.

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Hurricane Force Storm forecast off USEC

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 1200 UTC 09 Feb 2017

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 1200 UTC 09 Feb 2017

A rapidly deepening storm low moving off the Middle Atlantic Coast early Thursday will cause storm to hurricane force winds from 60 to 120 NM west of the center and 120 NM southeast of a line from within 24 hours 39N67W TO 36N70W.

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932 MB Hurricane Force Storm Eastern North Atlantic

 

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis

As of 0600 UTC 06 February, an intense hurricane force 932MB low was moving northward over the eastern North Atlantic is producing storm force winds outward 350-450 NM of the center and hurricane force winds (up to 80 knots) between 90-170 NM south and southeast of the center.  Wave heights in the area are estimated to be up to 15 meters (almost 50 feet).

NOAA OPC1200 UTC 06 Feb. 2017 Wave Height Analysis

NOAA OPC1200 UTC 06 Feb. 2017 Wave Height Analysis

ASCAT (METOP-B) Satellite Winds showing winds to 80 knots.

ASCAT (METOP-B) Satellite Winds showing winds to 80 knots.

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Hurricane Force Storm to affect westbound North Atlantic Shipping

 

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis

A developing 1017 mb off the US East Coast will move northeast and deepen rapidly over the next 48-72 hours with winds reaching storm to hurricane force within the next 36-48 hours then deepening to 936 mb in 72 Hours! Again we will likely see westbound shipping delays for vessels westbound to the US East Coast.

NOAA Surface Forecast Map

NOAA Surface Forecast Map

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