Predictability of Atlantic hurricanes

By Judith Curry
Cayman Financial Review 

Hurricane Irma

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was remarkable, including five landfalls of Category 5 storms in the Caribbean Basin, and three Category 4 strikes on the U.S. coastline. The 2017 landfalls cost hundreds of lives and record-breaking economic losses, exceeding $250 billion. These losses are sober reminders of hurricane vulnerability and the importance of hurricane prediction for public safety and the management of insurance and other economic risks.

Hurricane forecasts have continued to improve in recent years, but they are not yet as good as they could be. Continued advances in weather and climate computer models used to make forecasts, and improved observations from satellites and aircraft are driving these improvements. Also, essential to progress are advances in understanding of weather and climate dynamics.

Read full article here

Note:  Dr. Judith Curry is founder and President of  Climate Forecast Applications Network

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Typhoon Jongdari to hit Japan

Typhoon Jongdari Satellite image

Typhoon Jongdari located about 239 nm SE of Yokosuka, Japan is moving N-NW at 23 knots with max winds of 85 knots and max significant wave heights estimated at 40 ft. Forecast indicate that Jongdari will turn northwest then west making landfall over Japan between Tokyo and Osaka about 1500 UTC on the 28th with max winds about 75 knots.

JTWC Typhoon Forecast Track

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Typhoon Threat to Honshu Japan

Satellite image TD 15W developing over the western North Pacific

A developing Tropical Depression (15W) located about 376 nm southwest of Iwo To, Japan was moving northward at 9 knots with max winds currently about 30 knots but likey close to tropical storm strength. Slow development is anticipated for the next 24-36 hours, after which conditions become more favorable with typhoon strength likely in about 48 hours.

A north to northeast motion is forecast for the next 48 hours then a turn towards the north and northwest is anticipated which could bring the center over Honshu Japan near Tokyo about 0000 UTC July 29th  with winds to 80-85 knots.

JTWC forecast track for TD 15W

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TS Chris nears Hurricane Strength off US East Coast

NOAA Satellite image TS Chris

TS Chris continues to strengthen off the US East Coast with max winds at 60 knots is close to reaching hurricane strength. Chris is nearly stationary but is forecast to begin moving towards the northeast in about 36 hours.

Estimated wind field for TS Chris

 

Chris is expected to move across the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada on days 4 and 5 as a powerful extra-tropical low, possibly passing over southeastern Newfoundland around the 96-hour time period.

NHC Forecast Track TS Chris

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Super Typhoon Maria threatens Taiwan and China

Satellite image Super Typhoon Maria

Super Typhoon Maria over the western North Pacific was centered about 369nm S-SW of Iwo To and was moving towards the northwest at 11 knots.  Max winds have reached 130 knots with hurricane force winds extending outward  35-55 nm while 50 knot or higher winds extend outward 70-100 nm.

Maria is forecast to continue to move NW but gradually turn more towards the west and is forecast to pass just off the northern coast of Taiwan on the 10th around 18-22 UTC before making landfall on the coast of China about 06 UTC on the 11th.

JTWC forecast track for Super Typhoon Maria

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Update: Beryl weakens

TS Beryl IR Satellite Image: Source NOAA

Tropical Storm Beryl has weakened since yesterday and now has max winds of only 40 knots. Beryl is accelerating and now moving towards the WNW at 16 knots and continues to move into an area of increasing vertical wind shear and drier air so it is forecast calls to continue weakening, with Beryl forecast to weaken to a depression just after moving through the Lesser Antilles and then degenerate into a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

TS Beryl Forecast Track via NHC

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Hurricane Beryl Threatens Lesser Antilles

NOAA Satellite image Hurricane Beryl

Beryl has deepened to hurricane strength over the tropical North Atlantic.  Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye with max winds of about 70 knots and is moving westward at about 13 knots. Beryl’s wind field is very small with hurricane force winds extending outward only 10 nm to the northeast and damaging 50 knot winds only 10 nm to the south and 15 nm to the north.

Current thinking is that it is likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours.

NHC Forecast Track Hurricane Beryl

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Tropical Storm Prapiroon Update

TS Prapiroon Satellite image via JTWC

Tropical Storm Prapiroon, located about 84 NM southwest of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa was nearing typhoon strength with max winds of 60 knots.  Prapiroon was moving N-NW at 11 knots but is forecast to turn more towards the north then northeast passing just east of Pusan, South Korea between 0600UTC and 0900UTC 03 July.  Prapiroon should reach it’s peak intensity 65-75 knots during the next 18-24 hours.

JTWC Forecast Track

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Tropical Storm Prapiroon to threaten South Korea

TS Prapiroon Satellite image via JTWC

Tropical Storm Prapiroon, located over the western North Pacific has been deepening and moving towards the northwest at abut 5 knots.  Prapiroon currently has max winds of about 45 knots and is forecast to reach typhoon strength during the next 36 hours.

The forecast track shows Prapiroon turning more towards the north passing west of Okinawa about 0600 UTC on the 1st then making landfall over South Korea between 0600UTC and 1200UTC on the 2nd.

Forecast Track via JTWC

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Hurricane Bud Forecast to weaken

Satellite image Hurricane Bud

Hurricane Bud reached peak intensity around 0600 UTC with a max wind of about 110 knots as it moved towards the northwest at about 5 knots. Hurricane Bud is forecast move in a north-northwestward direction for the next 36 hours then turn more towards the north.  Bud will be moving over cooler water and will gradually weaken and move across Baja California Sur as a tropical storm on Thursday.

NHC Forecast Track Hurricane Bud

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