Recent SOI values suggest rapid end to El Nino

Current SOI

The SOI measures the difference in surface air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. Sustained positive SOI values above about +8 indicate a La Niña event while sustained negative values below about –8 indicate an El Niño.

Positive values indicate enhanced easterly winds over the tropical Pacific which tends to cool sea surface temperatures (La Nina).  Prolonged negative values indicate reduced easterlies which allow warming or El Nino conditions to develop.

Since October the SOI has reversed from a strong negative signal to mostly positive which suggests that the current El Nino is set to weaken rapidly.

Data source

About Fred Pickhardt

Fred Pickhardt, Marine Meteorologist I am a marine meteorologist and sailed briefly with American Export Lines in the Far East trade. I have extensive experience in marine weather analysis, marine weather forecasting, optimum ship routing, vessel performance evaluations and forensic marine weather event reconstructions. I founded Ocean Weather Services and as Owner and Chief Consultant currently provide optimum ship routing services and forensic marine weather reports to the maritime industry.
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