Reduced Risk for Atlantic Tropical Development through mid August

Mean Sea Level pressure anomaly forecast Aug 5-10

The Azores-Bermuda high pressure ridge will be displaced southward of it’s normal position over the next 5-6 days resulting in higher than normal pressures over the main hurricane development area and the Caribbean reducing the risk for tropical cyclone development through Aug 10th, at least.

Mean Sea Level Pressure forecast Aug 10-15

 

 

The ridge will start to migrate northward through the 15th, however, overall surface pressures will remain above normal.

 

 

The forecast for precipitation through the 3rd  week of August is also suggesting limited chances for tropical development, however, the precipitation forecast does suggest some activity over the western Caribbean and perhaps near and north of the Bahamas and possibly off the US Southeast Coast.

Precipitation anomaly forecast Aug 5-21

About Fred Pickhardt

Fred Pickhardt, Marine Meteorologist I am a marine meteorologist and sailed briefly with American Export Lines in the Far East trade. I have extensive experience in marine weather analysis, marine weather forecasting, optimum ship routing, vessel performance evaluations and forensic marine weather event reconstructions. I founded Ocean Weather Services and as Owner and Chief Consultant currently provide optimum ship routing services and forensic marine weather reports to the maritime industry.
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2 Responses to Reduced Risk for Atlantic Tropical Development through mid August

  1. Anders Thornblad says:

    Hi Fred, we are a cruising family heading for San Blas from Colombia. Would this also be a chance for less thunderstorm activity in the Kuna Yala area during the forecasted period?

    Best regards
    Anders

    • Hi Anders

      On the precipitation anomaly forecast chart the areas in green and blue show expected above normal rainfall while the brown and red ares are forecast to be below normal.

      Fred

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