Category Archives: Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Chanthu threatens West Pacific Shipping

Typhoon Chanthu has been downgraded from a super typhoon, however it is still packing winds to 120 knots with gusts to 145 knots.  Chanthu is moving NNE (015) at 7 knots. Chanthu is currently located south of Taipei, Taiwan and … Continue reading

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What is the weather like cruising the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico during August?

The weather during August is a very warm in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico and this is also the month when tropical cyclones become active. Gale force winds are rare, however,  but can occur in the vicinity of tropical storms and hurricanes.  Continue reading

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Elsa less than forecast for Tampa Bay

As Tropical Storm Elsa was moving north off the west coast of Florida on July 6th, the National Hurricane Center in Miami upgraded Elsa to a hurricane at 1:45pm on the 6th based on an Air Force Recon report that … Continue reading

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2021 North Atlantic Hurricane forecasts

Each spring there are numerous government and private organizations that undertake the task of predicting the North Atlantic Hurricane season.  This year, the 2021 North Atlantic hurricane forecasts are calling for another above-normal hurricane season with between 12 and 20 … Continue reading

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Florida West Coast Hurricanes 

September and October are the two months when the Florida West Coast is most at risk of encountering a landfalling hurricane.  Continue reading

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Does global climate change have an influence on tropical cyclone activity?

Does global climate change have an influence on tropical cyclone activity and can these influences be detected?  This question is important given the high risk to populations along coastal regions. This question was tackled in a recent assessment published in The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Continue reading

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Tampa Bay Hurricane Storm Surge Scenarios

While no storm scenario is a good one for the Tampa Bay area, the worst case is when the hurricane center is located north of the Tampa Bay entrance such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall occur at the mouth of the bay with storms making landfall farther north result in lower surges. Continue reading

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Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed probability graphic

In addition to the familiar National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) hurricane track forecast with it’s iconic cone, the NHC also produces a wind speed probabilities graphic. Continue reading

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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook issued by Colorado State University

The Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University has issued its “Extended Range Forecast for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.   The outlook anticipates that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. The report points to the current … Continue reading

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Hurricane Storm Surges in Tampa Bay

The highest storm surges in Tampa Bay are usually associated with hurricanes, with the three highest tides occurring during Cat 3 storms in 1848, 1921 and 1985. Hurricane Elena in late August of 1985 caused the highest storm surge recorded … Continue reading

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