Category Archives: Weather Wisdom

Tampa Bay Hurricane Storm Surge Scenarios

Posted on May 30, 2020 by Fred Pickhardt

While no storm scenario is a good one for the Tampa Bay area, the worst case is when the hurricane center is located north of the Tampa Bay entrance such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall occur at the mouth of the bay with storms making landfall farther north result in lower surges. Continue reading →

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What is a Storm Surge?

Posted on May 25, 2020 by Fred Pickhardt

Storm Surge is the abnormal sea level elevations (or depressions) caused by winds and atmospheric pressure. The components are: 1. Coastal set up (down) by the along shore wind stress.  In deep water, the Earth’s rotation causes a water to … Continue reading →

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Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed probability graphic

Posted on April 22, 2020 by Fred Pickhardt

In addition to the familiar National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) hurricane track forecast with it’s iconic cone, the NHC also produces a wind speed probabilities graphic. Continue reading →

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Hurricane Storm Surges in Tampa Bay

Posted on March 29, 2020 by Fred Pickhardt

The highest storm surges in Tampa Bay are usually associated with hurricanes, with the three highest tides occurring during Cat 3 storms in 1848, 1921 and 1985. Hurricane Elena in late August of 1985 caused the highest storm surge recorded … Continue reading →

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Use of the 500 mb Chart at Sea

Posted on December 10, 2019 by Fred Pickhardt

The 500mb forecast chart is an excellent tool for mariners to estimate where to anticipate the heaviest sea and swell conditions as well as a guide to the expected surface storm tracks and intensities.  The closer the height contours on … Continue reading →

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What is Weather Routing Vs. Vessel Performance Monitoring?

Posted on December 2, 2019 by Fred Pickhardt

Optimum ship routing is the art and science of developing the “best route” for a ship based on the existing weather forecasts, ship characteristics, ocean currents and special cargo requirements. Vessel performance monitoring services allow a ship operator, owner or charterer to get a daily performance analysis regarding a vessel’s speed and fuel consumption based on the charter-party specifications and the actual weather and currents encountered. Continue reading →

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What is the greenhouse effect?

Posted on January 29, 2019 by Fred Pickhardt

What is meant by the greenhouse effect? What is the greenhouse effect and how does it affect our climate? The sun is the primary source of energy here on the earth.  Heat generated from the earth’s interior (geothermal heat) is … Continue reading →

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What’s the weather like cruising the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during February?

Posted on January 9, 2019 by Fred Pickhardt

If you are planning a cruise or will be sailing during the month of February check out what weather to expect in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.    Wind Over the Caribbean during February winds tend to be … Continue reading →

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What does a “Gale Warning” mean?

Posted on October 29, 2018 by Fred Pickhardt

The National Weather Service has developed a multi-tier concept for forecasting hazardous weather which includes outlooks, watches, warnings and advisories.  Below are the visual day flag and nighttime light signals that warn of rough weather.  NOAA discontinued using the flags in … Continue reading →

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Predictability of Atlantic hurricanes

Posted on August 17, 2018 by Fred Pickhardt

By Judith Curry Cayman Financial Review  The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was remarkable, including five landfalls of Category 5 storms in the Caribbean Basin, and three Category 4 strikes on the U.S. coastline. The 2017 landfalls cost hundreds of lives … Continue reading →

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