NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 25 January 2013 showing possible historic storm low.
A historic extratropical storm is possible over the central North Atlantic on Saturday, the 26th of January based on the latest computer models. A weak 1014mb low will move off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts early Thursday moving rapidly east to northeast deepening to a 977 mb storm low by 12Z Friday, the 25th southeast of Cape race with winds to 50 knots. Thereafter, this low is forecast to “bomb out” as it moves northeast dropping 57 mb of pressure to 920 mb by 12Z Saturday, the 26th with hurricane force winds to 85 knots (nearly 100 mph) likely.
The all-time record for North Atlantic extratropical storms was the Braer Storm of January 1993 that reached a min pressure of 914 mb (26.99 in Hg) on January 10th. The 1993 storm caused blizzard conditions across much of Scotland and also led to the final breakup of the oil tanker MV Braer, which had been stranded in rocks off the Shetland Islands by a previous storm.
For more information on these hurricane force storms see “The Other Hurricane Season”
The ECMWF global model views this low pressure system quite differently (at least now on Thursday). It is at it’s deepest on Saturday 18z with a center pressure of ‘only’ 951 mb. We’ll follow this one closely from Denmark though – it’s seems energetic enough to end a 2½ week cold spell and at least give us a one week break before the Siberian air returns.
For a thorough well written recount of October 2012 extropical superstorm Sandy’s impact on the NY Region, read http://www.LISail.com (the rest of the ezine is great too!).
The current issue is called Devastation and Destruction.
BTW, I am a subscriber and have nothing to do with the publication.
Could you please follow any future weather predictions of this type with information about whether the prediction turned out to be correct or not. We do not all live in the middle of the Atlantic.
NOAA OPC does offer a verification page for those interested:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/GraphicalVerif.php
Below is a link showing the 48hr verification for last weekend’s storm
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=528792897155211&set=a.175542189146952.46215.144238675610637&type=1&theater
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