Beryl Update Sunday 27 May 2012
Convection is increasing around the center of Beryl which suggests it is transitioning into a tropical storm. A hurricane hunter aircraft recently reported max surface winds of 50kts (nearly 60mph) and Beryl is moving just south of due west at about 9 knots so landfall should occur this evening or tonight between Jacksonville and St. Augustine.
Beryl 1315Z 27 May Satellite and Surface Plot
Photo from CIMS Website
Latest NHC Advisory
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Beyrl forms in the North Atlantic
Saturday 26 May 2012
Subtropical Storm Beyrl formed yesterday has started to move west to southwest and is forecast to transition into a tropical storm over the next 24 hours making landfall late Sunday night along the coast near the GA-FL boarder with max winds of 45kts and gale force winds extending outward 90NM to the northeast and 40-50NM to the southwest with seas up to 18 feet.
US Navy Track Chart for Beryl
Latest NOAA NHC Advisory
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Possible Tropical Cyclone forming off US Southeast Coast - Friday 25 May 2012
The low off the US Southeast Coast is now deepening with winds reported to gale force mainly north and east of the center and the NHC now gives it a high probability of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm over the next day or two as the center stalls and then starts to move west or southwest.
NOAA Surface Analysis 21Z 25 May
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Tropics get Active
Thursday 24 May 2012
This evening there are three active systems: Typhoon Sanvu in the western North Pacific, Hurricane Bud in eastern North Pacific and a disturbance off the coast of South Florida.
Typhoon 03W aka Ty aka Sanvu was located about 245NM southwest of Iwo To and was moving northward at bout 7 knots. Max winds were about 70 knots with hurricane force winds extending outward about 25NM and storm force (50kt+) winds extended out about 45-55NM.
Latest US Navy Track Chart
Hurricane Bud was over the eastern North Pacific moving northeast at 8 Knots with max winds about 95kts. Hurricane force winds extended out only 10-20 NM with storm force (50KT+) winds extended outward about 30-40NM.
A 1009mb disturbance that was over the Northwest Caribbean Sea yesterday has moved northeast and currently is moving northeastward off the Florida Keys with winds up to 25kts and gusts to gale force mainly east of the center. Conditions may become more favorable for development during the next couple of days as the center moves into the southwestern North Atlantic.
NHC Satellite
TS Alberto Update Sunday 20 May
The center of Alberto is becoming more exposed and max winds likely now down to 35-4o knots as some dry air enters the circulation and the center moves over cooler water west of the Gulf Stream. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane will investigate the system this afternoon.
TS Alberto Satellite Photo Sunday Morning 1332Z 20 May
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Alberto Update Saturday Evening
Ship report near Alberto prompts upgrade in winds to 60mph (about 50 knots)
TS Alberto Forms off US East Coast
Saturday 19 May, 2012
Satellite radar and surface reports indicated that the low off the coast of South Carolina has enough tropical characteristics to be named the first tropical storm of the 2012 season with max winds around 40 knots. Environmental conditions, however, are marginal so additional intensification will be limited. Alberto is in an area of weak steering currents so the forecast track suggests a slow southwest drift during the next 12-24 hours followed by a turn to the northeast in 36-48 hours.
TS Alberto Satellite and Sat Winds 2015Z 19 May 2012
Satellite Photo courtesy of Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies Space Science and Engineering Center / University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Latest Advisory from the NHC
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Tropical Update
Monday 14 May 2012
Shower activity associated with the low southwest of the Azores has diminished so the potential for subtropical or tropical development has also decreased. Meanwhile, over the Eastern Pacific the first tropical depression of the season has formed (TD One-E) which could reach minimal tropical storm strength during the next 24 hours.
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Possible Subtropical Low Developing over North Atlantic
Possible Depression forming over Eastern Pacific
Saturday 12 May 2012
A nearly stationary cut-off extratropical low sourthwest of the Azores has begun to develop showers and thunderstorms near the center and will have to be watched for any further tropical development over the next few days.
NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 12Z 12 May 2012
See NOAA NHC Sat Photo here
Meanwhile, over the Eastern North Pacific a large area of disturbed weather has also developed S-SW of Acapulco, Mexico where onditions are favorable for development into a tropical depression over the next couple of days.
NOAA NHC Satellite Photo Saturday 12 May 2012
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North Atlantic Storm Tracks South of Normal
Monday 07 May, 2012
Over the North Atlantic an upper-level Omega block south of Greenland is depressing the normal storm tracks southward as seen on the surface analysis allowing a large fetch of easterly winds between 40N and 50N latitudes and should aid westbound ship traffic between North Europe and US Ports.
NOAA OPC North Atlantic 500MB Analysis 12z 07
NOAA OPC North Atlantic Surface Analysis 12z 07 May 2012
Arctic Sea Ice Extent close to normal
April 27, 2012
NSIDC Arctic Ice Extent Map April 25, 2012
Arctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent on March 18th and has now started the spring melt. The overall ice extent for March was the highest March average ice extent since 2008 and one of the higher March extents in the past decade. During April the melt rate continued at a slower than normal rate and by the 25th was close to the 1979-2000 average.
National Snow & Ice Data Center
Learn more about Ocean Weather Services
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Rough Seas over the Eastern North Atlantic
Tuesday 24 April, 2012
NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 12Z 24 April
A second storm low in as many days is heading into the English Channel Approaches and Bay of Biscay with expected winds and seas forces 8-10 (35-50 knots).
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Developing Gale along US East Coast
Saturday Evening 21 April 2012
NOAA OPC Sfc Forecast 12Z 23 April 2012
A developing low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will move northeast then north with winds forces 7-9 (30-45kts) seas building 12-22ft over the next 48hours. There is a slight risk for severe weather as the systems moves across central and southern Florida tonight.
Northeast Atlantic Storm heading for UK
Tuesday 17 April 2012
NOAA OPC North Atlantic Surface Analysis 12Z 17 April 2012EurMet Satellite 1745Z 17 April 2012
An intense storm low over the northeastern North Atlantic will move southeast across the Irish Sea and over Southern England during the next 24 hours. Winds forces 10-11 (48-63 knots) and waves to 12 meters (39ft) are likely southwest of the center today and tonight.
EurMet Satellite 1745Z 17 April 2012
Learn more about Ocean Weather Services
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Storm Winds northeast of Bermuda
Monday 16 April 2012
NOAA OPC North Atlantic Surface Analysis 12Z 16 April 2012
A 1000mb Cut-off Low over the Central North Atlantic east of Bermuda is moving west to northwest at about 15kts with gale to storm force winds (35-50kts) and seas to 21 feet within 240 NM north and northwest of the center due to a tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure to the north. As the low moves west and the high east the gradient will slacken and winds and seas will diminish over the next 24 hours.
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Western Mediterranean Sea Storm Warning
Sunday 15 April, 2012
NOAA OPC 06Z Sfc Analysis 15 April 2012
An intense Gale low over the western Mediterranean Sea could cause winds to storm force over the waters east and south of the Gulf of Lions during the next 24-36 hours.
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What was the weather when the Titanic Sank?
Saturday 14 April 2012
NOAA ESRL 20th Century Reanalysis for 15 April 1912 00-06Z
100 years ago the SS Titanic hit an iceberg off the coast of Newfoundland and sank. It appears from a reanalysis of the surface pressure patterns via the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory 20th Century Reanalysis that a strong area of high pressure of 1030MB or higher extended that night from Nova Scotia eastward across the waters south of Newfoundland. The air would have been cold (near freezing) but the winds were light and the sea fairly calm. It was reported that there were no clouds and that the stars could be seen.
NOAA Titanic Expedition 2004: Breathtaking Wreck Footage
BBC Surrey: reading of radio messages to and from the Titanic
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8.6 Earthquake off Indonesia triggers Tsunami Alert
March 11, 2012 From CNN: A massive earthquake struck off the coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra on Wednesday afternoon, triggering a tsunami alert for the Indian Ocean.
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Low Latitude Gale Low over Central North Pacific
Saturday 07 April 2012
NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis 12Z 07 April 2012
A fairly strong cut-off low has been moving westward over the Central North Pacific near 20N latitude causing strong to gale force winds some 300-400NM north of the center.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray have issued their April tropical cyclone outlook for the North Atlantic and they anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 averages:10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
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Sea of Japan Storm Intensifies
958MB hurricane force storm pounding the Japan Sea and Japan. OceanSAT wind data suggests surface winds to at least 80 knots.
NOAA OPC 00Z Sfc Analysis 04 April 2012
OceanSat Sfc Winds 01Z 04 April 2012
Hurricane Force Storm over Sea Of Japan
Tuesday 03 April 2012
NOAA OPC North Pacific Surface Analysis 12Z 03 April 2012
ASCAT SFC Winds 16Z 03 April 2012
Another rapidly deepening storm over the Sea of Japan is producing winds to hurricane force as it moves northeastward across Hokkaido and over the Sea of Okhotsk.
Learn more about Ocean Weather Services
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Western North Atlantic Storm Brewing
Monday 02 April 2012
NOAA OPC Western North Atlantic Surface Forecast for 00Z 03 April
A developing 996 MB low off the US East Coast this morning will deepen rapidly as it moves east to east-northeast dropping to 963 MB over the next 24-36 hours then turns northeast to north as winds increase forces 10-12 (50-65 knots) within 180NM southwest and west of the center and seas build to 20-36 feet.
Learn more about Ocean Weather Services
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North Pacific Storm Winds 02 April 2012
OSCAT Satellite derived wind 11Z 02 April 2012 showing area of 50-65kts winds in over the Northeastern North Pacific this morning.
OSCAT Satellite derived wind 11Z 02 April 2012: NOAA
NOAA OPC 12Z 01 April 2012 Hurricane Force StormWest Pacific Hurricane Force Storm
West Pacific Hurricane Force Storm – Sunday 01 April 2012
A large and intense 956MB storm centered over the Sea of Okhotsk is causing winds to hurricane force south and west of the center.
NOAA OPC 12Z 01 April 2012 Eastern North Pacific
At the same time another developing storm will deepening rapidly to 959MB by early Monday enroute to the Gulf of Alaska with winds increasing to forces 10-12 (50-65kts) within 180NM south of the center.
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NOAA OPC Wind Wave Satellite Composite 21Z 31 March 2011
West Coast Storm Update Saturday Night 31 March 2011
The intense storm off the US West coast has intensified to hurricane force with winds forces 10-12 (50-65kts) between 300 and 420nm southwest of the center and within 180NM northwest of the center with seas to 36 ft. in the southwest sector.
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West Coast Storm Warning
Friday 30 March 2012
NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 31 March 2012
An intense storm low over the eastern North Pacific will move eastward to the coast of California during the next 24 hours with winds forces 8-11 (40-60kts) and seas building 20-36 feet within several hundred miles south and west of the center.
Learn more about Ocean Weather Services
Typhoon Pakhar over South China Sea
Friday 30 March 2012
Typhoon Pakhar 00Z 30 March
At 00Z 30 March, Typhoon 02W (Pakhar) was over the South China Sea moving west at 04kts with max winds to 65 knots. Storm force (50Kt) or higher winds extended outward some 35-50 NM and Pakhar is forecast to move west to northwest reaching the coast of Viet Nam in about 48 hours with max winds of about 80 Knots.
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North Atlantic Omega Block
Thursday 29 March 2012
A strong upper-level Omega Block over the Northeastern North Atlantic is blocking the normal west to east stormtracks and shunting then north them northwestward.
NOAA OPC 500 MB ANALYSIS 12Z 29 MARCH
NOAA OPC SURFACE ANALYSIS 12Z 29 MARCH 2012
NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 22 March 2012
Hurricane Force Storm Expected off Newfoundland
A deepening storm over the north-central North Atlantic is forecast with winds increasing to forces 10-12 (50-65 Knots) within 240-360NM west and southwest of the center late Wednesday into Thursday with seas building to over 30 feet.
NORTH ATLANTIC STORM 03z 22 MARCH SATWIND
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Intense Storm Forecast for Northeast Pacific
Sunday 18 March 2012
NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 00Z 20 March 2012
A Developing low over the east-central North Pacific will move northeast and deepen rapidly during Monday and Tuesday with storm to hurricane force winds likely by late Monday or Tuesday as it nears the western coast of Canada.
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Gales Kick up Surf Along California Coast
Sunday 18 March 2012
- NOAA Wave Analysis and Satellite Photo 09Z 18 March 2012
Gale force winds along the coast of California is kicking up the surf with waves of 15-23 feet off the southern coast of California this morning.
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TC 17S (Lua) Strengthens off NW Coast of Australia
Wednesday 14 March 2012
- JTWC Track Forecast for TC Lua
Tropical Cyclone 17S (Lua) is gaining strength over the southern Indian Ocean off the Northwest Coast of Australia. As of 12Z 14 March max winds were at 50 knots and Lua was moving northeastward at about 5 knots some 425 NM northwest of Port Hedland.
Forecasts suggest that Lua will turn eastward then southeastward and intensify to hurricane strength in about 24 hours, reaching the coast of Australia on or about 00Z 17 March.
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An intense storm low over the northwestern North Pacific south-southeast of Kamchatka was moving northeast at 30 kts heading towards the western Bering Sea. During the next 24-30 hours expecting winds forces 10-15 (50-65 kts) with seas building to 39 ft (nearly 12 meters).
NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 18Z 11 March 2012
NOAA OPC Wave Forecast 12Z Monday 12 March
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Hurricane Force Wind Warning for North Atlantic
Sunday 11 March 2012
NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 06Z 11 March 2012
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Tropical Cyclone Koji nearing Hurricane Strength
Thursday Evening 08 March, 2012
TC Koji Track chart JTWC
Hurricane Force Storm Update
Tuesday 06 March 2012
NOAA North Atlantic Sfc Analysis 18Z 06 March 2011
North Atlantic Hurricane Storm Update
Monday 05 March, 2012
NOAA OPC Wave Forecast for 00Z 07 March 2012
NOAA OPC Sfc Forecast 00Z 07 March 2012
NOAA ASCAT SFC Winds 06 March 2012
very interested
Your storm conditions are essential to my marine investigations
Hi David,
Let me know if you need any detailed weather reconstructions.
Fred
Very interesting ocean storms weather information around the world.
Your ocean weather updates are very useful for my courses in metereology for commercial yachting up to 500 GT STCW95. It gives a good example of the dfifferent kinds of information that can be obtained through your services.
Arctic Ice extent is now plunging rapidly as the relatively thin Bering Sea ice has begun to vanish – as is the <1 yr ice (at reecord low levels already) in the Kara and Barents Sea area. The record warm winter in the US (partially in response to the now ended La Nina event and a generally positive AO) kept the high arctic quite cold this winter with ice extent reaching record levels in the Bering Sea. This new ice will soon be gone. It is far too soon to even estimate what the minimum will be in September – but it is quite possible we'll end up in the top 5 lowest extents on record. With the 'perfect' conditions seen in the summer of 2007 – there is still a chance to tie or break the all-time minimum set in 2007, and essentially tied last summer.
Steve,
Thanks for your comments.
That would present a very interesting year having the ice extent go from near normal to near record low. The overall long-term trend is what’s important so the next couple years should show whether this is just a natural anomaly.
Fred