Easterly winds mostly Beaufort force 4 (11-16 knots) prevail this month except force 5 (17-21 knots) over the central Caribbean north of Columbia. Over the southwestern Caribbean the wind will back more into the northeast and diminish to mostly forces 3-4 (7-16 knots). Over the northwestern Caribbean, winds tend to be more from the east to east-southeast force 4 (11-16 knots).
Gulf of Mexico
East to southeast winds, mostly forces 3-4 (7-16 knots) prevail.
Generally waves will average 2-5 feet (0.5-1.5 meters) however, over the Central Caribbean, waves average 6-8 foot (2-2.5 meters). The risk for encountering rough seas of 8 feet (2.4 meters) or higher is less than 10% across the Gulf of Mexico, the northwestern and easternmost Caribbean, however, the risk increases to 20-30% over the central Caribbean Sea, especially north of Columbia.
Over the Gulf of Mexico air temperatures average near 81-84 F (27-29 C) over the Gulf of Mexico and the western and central Caribbean Sea but 80-82 F (27-28 C) over the eastern Caribbean.
Overall, most Caribbean destinations see morning lows of 74-80 F (23-27 C) with daytime highs 86-92 F (30-33 C). The hottest locations are Aruba, Cancun, Cozumel and the Caymans with afternoon high temperatures averaging at or above 90 F (32 C).
Sea surface temperatures average 81-83 F (27.5-28.5 C) for most of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea this month, except 80-82 F (27-28 C) in the eastern Caribbean.
Rainfall continues to increase in the Caribbean during June, however, Aruba remains dry with Antigua and St. Maarten also being relatively dry this month. Higher rainfalls are likely in Central America, especially Belize and Costa Rica. In addition, the Bahamas also see heavier rainfalls during June.
The risk for tropical cyclones increases in June with the highest risk (10-17%) occurring over the Gulf of Mexico and an 8-11% in the Northwest Caribbean Sea. The risk diminishes to 3-5 % for the Southwest Caribbean and 2% or less for the eastern Caribbean.