Heavy Rains and Gale Winds along Florida Coast

Posted on November 15, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

A gale low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will move slowly east bringing beneficial rains to drought-stricken areas of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. A secondary low center will form along the Florida East Coast early Thursday and will produce some heavy rainfall in southeast Florida from West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale down through Miami and Homestead. In addition, strong to gale force winds are likely with seas building 3-5 meters (10-16 Feet) north of the developing secondary low center Thursday.

NOAA WPC Surface Forecast Wednesday Night

Extremely heavy rainfall rates are possible which may approach or exceed 2 to 3 inches per hour and may produce rainfall totals upwards of 3 to 6 inches with some isolated max amounts approaching 10 inches.

NOAA NWS 24 Hour Rainfall Forecast

NOAA NHC Wave Forecast Thursday Evening

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A Second Hurricane-Force Storm heads for English Channel Approaches

Posted on November 2, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis

A 2nd rapidly deepening storm low east of Newfoundland will move east then east-southeast with winds to 65 kts building significant wave heights to 14 meters (46 feet) during the next 36 hours over the eastern North Atlantic north of the Azores.  Thereafter the low will begin to weaken and move across southern England into the North Sea.

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 1200Z 04 November

Again ship delays are likely for both inbound and outbound English Channel traffic as well as north and southbound traffic in the Bay of Biscay.

 

NOAA OPC Wave Height Forecast 1200Z 04 November

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Two Hurricane-Force North Atlantic Storms

Posted on November 1, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Meteosat Image North Atlantic

A hurricane-force storm low over the eastern North Atlantic will move rapidly across southern England and into the North sea with winds to 70 kts and significant wave heights to 12 meters (about 40 feet) in the English Channel Approaches and portions of the Bay of Biscay during the next 18-24 hours.

 

 

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 1200 UTC 01 Nov 2023

 

A second low developing SSE of New England will move NE then E and deepen rapidly into another hurricane-force storm low over the Central North Atlantic with wind to 70 kts and significant wave heights building 12-14 meters 40-46 feet) over the next 48-72 hours, approaching the English Channel Approaches by the 4th. 

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 0000Z 03 Nov. 2023

NOAA OPC Wave Height Forecast

Both storm systems will negatively impact both east and west bound shipping lanes for next few days.

 

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Intense Storm Heads for English Channel Approaches

Posted on October 31, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 1200 UTC 31 October

A gale low over the western North Atlantic will move ENE at 45 kts, deepening rapidly into a hurricane-force 953 mb storm low over the English Channel Approaches by 0000 UTC November 2nd with winds to 70 kts and significant wave heights to 12 meters (about 40 ft) south of England and Ireland and portions of the Bay of Biscay. Thereafter the storm center will move across southern England and into the Northsea.

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 0000 UTC 2 November

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant shipping delays are possible for both inbound and outbound English Channel traffic.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hurricane-Force Storm to affect Bay of Biscay and English Channel Approaches

Posted on October 29, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 1200 UTC 31 October

A low pressure disturbance will move off the New England coast early Monday, moving rapidly ENE deepening to a gale low south of Newfoundland then deepening rapidly into a hurricane force storm reaching the English Channel Approaches by 0000 UTC November 2nd with winds of 65-75 kts and significant wave heights building to 12-14 meters (40-46 feet) over the Bay of Biscay and Channel approaches.  This will likely cause issues, particularly with westbound shipping. 

ECMWF Wind Forecast for 0000 UTC 2nd November via windy.com

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Tammy now a Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Storm

Posted on October 26, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA Satellite Image Tammy

Hurricane Tammy has transitioned to a pot-tropical hurricane-force storm low with min pressure of 973 mb and max winds to 75 kts and significant wave heights to 10 meters (33 ft) as it moves NNW at 10 kts. 

NOAA OPC Wave Height Analysis

X-Tammy is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves NW to WNW during the next 48 hours, thereafter turning back eastward.

NOAA OPC 48 hr Surface Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

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Catastrophic Cat 5 Otis makes landfall near Acapulco

Posted on October 25, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Cat 5 Hurricane Otis making lanfall near Acapulco, Mexico

Major Hurricane Otis continued to strengthen until near the time of landfall in southern Mexico near Acapulco, reaching a catastrophic Category 5 with max wind of 145 kts (165 mph). 

 

 

 

 

Otis intensified very rapidly from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 hurricane in about 18 hours as it moved over sea surface temperatures from 28 C to about 30 C as it approached the coast.  Although the SSTs are warm, they are not all that unusual for the area. The very rapid intensification will be a subject for further study.  In 2015  Hurricane Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours with max winds of 185 knots (215 mph) but weakened to 130 kts (150 mph) at landfall. 

Otis has moved onshore in the greater Acapulco area and now that the center is moving inland, rapid weakening is expected.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hurricane Otis Damage in Acapulco, Mexico

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Hurricane Otis nearing Cat 5 Strength

Posted on October 24, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA IR Satellite Image Hurricane Otis

Hurricane Otis is undergoing very rapid development with max winds currently at 125 kts with a min pressure of 941 mb and significant wave heights estimated 12-13 meters (40-43 feet) as it moves NNW at 7 kts. Otis is a small but powerful storm with hurricane force winds extending outward 20-25 nm and 50 knot winds outward 30-40 nm   Otis is forecast to peak near 140 kts (Cat 5) tonight, prior to landfall.  

NHC Forecast Track for Hurricane Otis

 

Otis is forecast to be a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight or early Wednesday. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest Mexico this week.  This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…  Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…  Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado



Latest NHC Advisory


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Tropical Storm Otis continues to Develop south of Acapulco


			

				Posted on October 24, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt			


					

				
NOAA TS Otis Satellite Image


Tropical Storm Otis continues to become better organized SSE of Acapulco, Mexico as it moves NNW at 7 kts. Max winds are now at 60 kts with significant wave heights estimated near 7 meters (23 ft). Otis is forecast to continue NNW and should cross the coastline of southern Mexico in a day or so with max winds about 80 kts. The interaction of the circulation of Otis with the mountainous terrain of Mexico could induce a slight leftward turn as the system nears the coastline.


NOAA NHC Track Forecast for TS Otis


 


 Otis is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight or Wednesday, and hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southern coast of Mexico where hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest Mexico early this week.  This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


Estimated Wind Field of TS Otis


Latest NHC Advisories


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Tropical Cyclone Lola over South Pacific has reached max winds of 120 knots


			

				Posted on October 23, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt			


					

				
Tropical Cyclone Lola Satellite Image


Tropical Cyclone Lola over the South Pacific NNE of Port Vila, Vanuatu has intensified to 120 kt max winds with significant wave heights to 15-15.5 meters (about 50 ft) as it moves SSW at 6 kts. Lola has likely reached its peak intensity as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and into an area of strong vertical wind shear.


JTWC Track Forecast for TC Lola


 


Lola will likely weaken as it approaches and moves over the Islands of Vanuatu and then should turn southward towards New Caledonia as a weakening tropical storm.


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