Tammy now a Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Storm

NOAA Satellite Image Tammy

Hurricane Tammy has transitioned to a pot-tropical hurricane-force storm low with min pressure of 973 mb and max winds to 75 kts and significant wave heights to 10 meters (33 ft) as it moves NNW at 10 kts. 

NOAA OPC Wave Height Analysis

X-Tammy is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves NW to WNW during the next 48 hours, thereafter turning back eastward.

NOAA OPC 48 hr Surface Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

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Catastrophic Cat 5 Otis makes landfall near Acapulco

Cat 5 Hurricane Otis making lanfall near Acapulco, Mexico

Major Hurricane Otis continued to strengthen until near the time of landfall in southern Mexico near Acapulco, reaching a catastrophic Category 5 with max wind of 145 kts (165 mph). 

 

 

 

 

Otis intensified very rapidly from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 hurricane in about 18 hours as it moved over sea surface temperatures from 28 C to about 30 C as it approached the coast.  Although the SSTs are warm, they are not all that unusual for the area. The very rapid intensification will be a subject for further study.  In 2015  Hurricane Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours with max winds of 185 knots (215 mph) but weakened to 130 kts (150 mph) at landfall. 

Otis has moved onshore in the greater Acapulco area and now that the center is moving inland, rapid weakening is expected.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hurricane Otis Damage in Acapulco, Mexico

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Hurricane Otis nearing Cat 5 Strength

NOAA IR Satellite Image Hurricane Otis

Hurricane Otis is undergoing very rapid development with max winds currently at 125 kts with a min pressure of 941 mb and significant wave heights estimated 12-13 meters (40-43 feet) as it moves NNW at 7 kts. Otis is a small but powerful storm with hurricane force winds extending outward 20-25 nm and 50 knot winds outward 30-40 nm   Otis is forecast to peak near 140 kts (Cat 5) tonight, prior to landfall.  

NHC Forecast Track for Hurricane Otis

 

Otis is forecast to be a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight or early Wednesday. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest Mexico this week.  This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…  Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…  Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado


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Tropical Storm Otis continues to Develop south of Acapulco

NOAA TS Otis Satellite Image

Tropical Storm Otis continues to become better organized SSE of Acapulco, Mexico as it moves NNW at 7 kts. Max winds are now at 60 kts with significant wave heights estimated near 7 meters (23 ft). Otis is forecast to continue NNW and should cross the coastline of southern Mexico in a day or so with max winds about 80 kts. The interaction of the circulation of Otis with the mountainous terrain of Mexico could induce a slight leftward turn as the system nears the coastline.

NOAA NHC Track Forecast for TS Otis

 

 Otis is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight or Wednesday, and hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southern coast of Mexico where hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest Mexico early this week.  This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

Estimated Wind Field of TS Otis

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Tropical Cyclone Lola over South Pacific has reached max winds of 120 knots

Tropical Cyclone Lola Satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone Lola over the South Pacific NNE of Port Vila, Vanuatu has intensified to 120 kt max winds with significant wave heights to 15-15.5 meters (about 50 ft) as it moves SSW at 6 kts. Lola has likely reached its peak intensity as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and into an area of strong vertical wind shear.

JTWC Track Forecast for TC Lola

 

Lola will likely weaken as it approaches and moves over the Islands of Vanuatu and then should turn southward towards New Caledonia as a weakening tropical storm.

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Tropical Cyclone Hamoon rapidly deepened over Bay of Bengal

JTWC Satellite Image TC Hamoon

Tropical Cyclone 06B (Hamoon) has deepened rapidly over the Bay of Bengal today and now has reached a max wind of 70 kts and significant wave heights to 8.5 meters 27-28 ft as it moves NE at 12 kts.

JTWC Forecast Track for TC Hamoon

 

Vertical wind shear is now increasing, however, and Hamoon is forecast to weaken quickly to a tropical storm before making landfall near Chittagong in about 36 hours. 

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Tropical Cyclone LOLA intensifies over the South Pacific

Satellite Image TC Lola

Tropical Cyclone 01P (LOLA) over the South Pacific, north of Port Vila currently has max winds to 75 kts and significant wave heights about 8-8.5 meters (26-28 feet) and is moving SSE at 5 kts. Lola is forecast to track SSW to SW for the next 48 hrs intensifying to 95-100 kts within 24 hours. Thereafter, land interactions and increasing shear will weaken the system. 

JTWC Forecast Track TC Lola

 

Lola will pass very near or over Vanuatu about 1200-1800 UTC on the 24th with peak winds about 80-85 kts.

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Hurricane Tammy pulls away from the Leeward Islands

Hurricane Tammy Satellite Image: NOAA

Hurricane Tammy is pulling away from the northern Leeward Islands, but a trailing area of heavy rain continues to affect portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands.  Min pressure is currently 988 mb with max winds to 75 kts and significant wave heights to 8 meters (26 feet) as it moves NW at 8 kts.

NHC Forecast Track Hurricane Tammy

Tammy will likely maintain max winds near 75-80 kts for the next 2-3 days as it moves north then northeast over warm sea surface temperatures and moderate wind shear. Drier air and increasing wind shear will start to weaken Tammy in 3-4 days leading to extratropical transition as blocking high pressure to the north turns the storm back towards the northwest.

Latest NHC Advisory

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Tropical Cyclone Tej rapidly deepening over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Tej Satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone Tej has deepened rapidly (65 kts in 24 hrs) over the Arabian Sea SSE of Salalah, Oman and is moving NW at 11 kts with max winds to 105 kts and significant wave heights to 11 meters (36 feet). Tej is a very small cyclone with hurricane force winds limited to about 10 nm from the center. Tej is forecast to reach a peak intensity of 130-140 kts in about 24 hours but entrainment of dry air thereafter will likely weaken the system to 70-80 kts at landfall about 0000 UTC on the 24th.

JTWC Track Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Tej

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Hurricane Tammy passing near Guadeloupe

Hurricane Tammy Satellite Image: NOAA

Hurricane Tammy is located just ESE of Guadeloupe but remains a small storm with max winds of 75 kts and radius of hurricane force winds extending out from the center only 10-20 nm. Tammy is moving NW at 7 kts which should keep the core winds over or just east of the leeward Islands during the next 12-24 hours. After passing the Leeward islands, Tammy should turn northward.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands through early Sunday. Heavy rains from Tammy will affect the Lesser Antilles north of Martinique today, spreading across the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and possibly eastern Puerto Rico on Sunday. 

Risk of encountering winds of 50 knots

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