Tropical Storm Otis continues to Develop south of Acapulco

NOAA TS Otis Satellite Image

Tropical Storm Otis continues to become better organized SSE of Acapulco, Mexico as it moves NNW at 7 kts. Max winds are now at 60 kts with significant wave heights estimated near 7 meters (23 ft). Otis is forecast to continue NNW and should cross the coastline of southern Mexico in a day or so with max winds about 80 kts. The interaction of the circulation of Otis with the mountainous terrain of Mexico could induce a slight leftward turn as the system nears the coastline.

NOAA NHC Track Forecast for TS Otis

 

 Otis is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight or Wednesday, and hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southern coast of Mexico where hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest Mexico early this week.  This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

Estimated Wind Field of TS Otis

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Tropical Cyclone Lola over South Pacific has reached max winds of 120 knots

Tropical Cyclone Lola Satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone Lola over the South Pacific NNE of Port Vila, Vanuatu has intensified to 120 kt max winds with significant wave heights to 15-15.5 meters (about 50 ft) as it moves SSW at 6 kts. Lola has likely reached its peak intensity as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and into an area of strong vertical wind shear.

JTWC Track Forecast for TC Lola

 

Lola will likely weaken as it approaches and moves over the Islands of Vanuatu and then should turn southward towards New Caledonia as a weakening tropical storm.

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Tropical Cyclone Hamoon rapidly deepened over Bay of Bengal

JTWC Satellite Image TC Hamoon

Tropical Cyclone 06B (Hamoon) has deepened rapidly over the Bay of Bengal today and now has reached a max wind of 70 kts and significant wave heights to 8.5 meters 27-28 ft as it moves NE at 12 kts.

JTWC Forecast Track for TC Hamoon

 

Vertical wind shear is now increasing, however, and Hamoon is forecast to weaken quickly to a tropical storm before making landfall near Chittagong in about 36 hours. 

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Tropical Cyclone LOLA intensifies over the South Pacific

Satellite Image TC Lola

Tropical Cyclone 01P (LOLA) over the South Pacific, north of Port Vila currently has max winds to 75 kts and significant wave heights about 8-8.5 meters (26-28 feet) and is moving SSE at 5 kts. Lola is forecast to track SSW to SW for the next 48 hrs intensifying to 95-100 kts within 24 hours. Thereafter, land interactions and increasing shear will weaken the system. 

JTWC Forecast Track TC Lola

 

Lola will pass very near or over Vanuatu about 1200-1800 UTC on the 24th with peak winds about 80-85 kts.

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Hurricane Tammy pulls away from the Leeward Islands

Hurricane Tammy Satellite Image: NOAA

Hurricane Tammy is pulling away from the northern Leeward Islands, but a trailing area of heavy rain continues to affect portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands.  Min pressure is currently 988 mb with max winds to 75 kts and significant wave heights to 8 meters (26 feet) as it moves NW at 8 kts.

NHC Forecast Track Hurricane Tammy

Tammy will likely maintain max winds near 75-80 kts for the next 2-3 days as it moves north then northeast over warm sea surface temperatures and moderate wind shear. Drier air and increasing wind shear will start to weaken Tammy in 3-4 days leading to extratropical transition as blocking high pressure to the north turns the storm back towards the northwest.

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Tropical Cyclone Tej rapidly deepening over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Tej Satellite Image

Tropical Cyclone Tej has deepened rapidly (65 kts in 24 hrs) over the Arabian Sea SSE of Salalah, Oman and is moving NW at 11 kts with max winds to 105 kts and significant wave heights to 11 meters (36 feet). Tej is a very small cyclone with hurricane force winds limited to about 10 nm from the center. Tej is forecast to reach a peak intensity of 130-140 kts in about 24 hours but entrainment of dry air thereafter will likely weaken the system to 70-80 kts at landfall about 0000 UTC on the 24th.

JTWC Track Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Tej

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Hurricane Tammy passing near Guadeloupe

Hurricane Tammy Satellite Image: NOAA

Hurricane Tammy is located just ESE of Guadeloupe but remains a small storm with max winds of 75 kts and radius of hurricane force winds extending out from the center only 10-20 nm. Tammy is moving NW at 7 kts which should keep the core winds over or just east of the leeward Islands during the next 12-24 hours. After passing the Leeward islands, Tammy should turn northward.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands through early Sunday. Heavy rains from Tammy will affect the Lesser Antilles north of Martinique today, spreading across the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and possibly eastern Puerto Rico on Sunday. 

Risk of encountering winds of 50 knots

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Major Hurricane Norma Heads Toward Cabo San Lucas

NOAA IR Satellite Image Major Hurricane Norma

Major Hurricane Norma located south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico is moving NNW at 8 kts with max winds to 105 kts and significant wave heights to 12 meters (39 ft).  Hurricane force winds, however, only extend outward 20-30 nm from the center.

NHC Forecast Track for Hurricane Norma

Norma is expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it moves over the Baja California Sur Peninsula late Saturday and early Sunday before weakening to a tropical storm and turning eastward. Norma is expected to bring life-threatening hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the far southern Baja California peninsula on Saturday. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern portions of Baja California Sur tonight, continuing through Sunday, with heavy rains reaching Sinaloa on Saturday. 

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Hurricane Tammy approaching Leeward Islands

NOAA Satellite Image Hurricane Tammy

 

Hurricane Tammy has become better organized with max winds now at 65 kts as it moves WNW at 6 kts with max significant wave heights estimated to 7.5 meters (25 feet). Tammy is forecast to turn NW later today and bring the center near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and Saturday. Once Tammy moves north of the Leeward Islands, the storm is forecast to turn northward and then begin to recurve towards the northeast in 4 and 5 days. 

Tammy should strengthen for another 36-48 hours, peaking at 75-85 kts but as the center moves north of the Leeward Islands, increasing vertical wind shear is likely to limit  intensification. 

NOAA NHC Hurricane Tammy Track Forecast 

 

Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands by late tonight or Saturday morning.  Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the Leeward and northern Windward Islands later today and into Saturday morning, spreading into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as early as Sunday. 

Close-up Track Forecast Hurricane Tammy

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Are Atlantic East Coast Major Hurricanes Increasing due to Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

According to a recent article in Nature.com,  rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones and max wind speeds have significantly increased since 2001 along the US East Coast due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which have warmed the planet and oceans.

SeeObserved increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates”

 

The reality is that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO Warm Phase has more to do with this than anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

AMO Phases

During the warm phase of the AMO, the number of weak hurricanes that mature into major hurricanes increases significantly. Atlantic tropical cyclone high-activity eras have occurred from 1880 to 1900, 1945 to 1970 and 1995 to the present. Low-activity eras occurred during 1901-1930 and 1971-1994. From 1970-1990 the AMO was in the cold phase, so the number of major hurricanes was reduced. The AMO shifted from cold to warm phase in 1995 and since then, the number of major storms markedly increased.

See Atlantic high-activity eras: What does it mean for hurricane season?”

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