Hurricane Tammy passing near Guadeloupe

Posted on October 21, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Hurricane Tammy Satellite Image: NOAA

Hurricane Tammy is located just ESE of Guadeloupe but remains a small storm with max winds of 75 kts and radius of hurricane force winds extending out from the center only 10-20 nm. Tammy is moving NW at 7 kts which should keep the core winds over or just east of the leeward Islands during the next 12-24 hours. After passing the Leeward islands, Tammy should turn northward.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands through early Sunday. Heavy rains from Tammy will affect the Lesser Antilles north of Martinique today, spreading across the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and possibly eastern Puerto Rico on Sunday. 

Risk of encountering winds of 50 knots

Latest NHC Advisory

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Major Hurricane Norma Heads Toward Cabo San Lucas

Posted on October 20, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA IR Satellite Image Major Hurricane Norma

Major Hurricane Norma located south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico is moving NNW at 8 kts with max winds to 105 kts and significant wave heights to 12 meters (39 ft).  Hurricane force winds, however, only extend outward 20-30 nm from the center.

NHC Forecast Track for Hurricane Norma

Norma is expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it moves over the Baja California Sur Peninsula late Saturday and early Sunday before weakening to a tropical storm and turning eastward. Norma is expected to bring life-threatening hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the far southern Baja California peninsula on Saturday. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern portions of Baja California Sur tonight, continuing through Sunday, with heavy rains reaching Sinaloa on Saturday. 

NOAA NHC Advisory

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Hurricane Tammy approaching Leeward Islands

Posted on October 20, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA Satellite Image Hurricane Tammy

 

Hurricane Tammy has become better organized with max winds now at 65 kts as it moves WNW at 6 kts with max significant wave heights estimated to 7.5 meters (25 feet). Tammy is forecast to turn NW later today and bring the center near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and Saturday. Once Tammy moves north of the Leeward Islands, the storm is forecast to turn northward and then begin to recurve towards the northeast in 4 and 5 days. 

Tammy should strengthen for another 36-48 hours, peaking at 75-85 kts but as the center moves north of the Leeward Islands, increasing vertical wind shear is likely to limit  intensification. 

NOAA NHC Hurricane Tammy Track Forecast 

 

Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands by late tonight or Saturday morning.  Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the Leeward and northern Windward Islands later today and into Saturday morning, spreading into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as early as Sunday. 

Close-up Track Forecast Hurricane Tammy

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Are Atlantic East Coast Major Hurricanes Increasing due to Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

Posted on October 20, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

According to a recent article in Nature.com,  rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones and max wind speeds have significantly increased since 2001 along the US East Coast due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which have warmed the planet and oceans.

See “Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates”

 

The reality is that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO Warm Phase has more to do with this than anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

AMO Phases

During the warm phase of the AMO, the number of weak hurricanes that mature into major hurricanes increases significantly. Atlantic tropical cyclone high-activity eras have occurred from 1880 to 1900, 1945 to 1970 and 1995 to the present. Low-activity eras occurred during 1901-1930 and 1971-1994. From 1970-1990 the AMO was in the cold phase, so the number of major hurricanes was reduced. The AMO shifted from cold to warm phase in 1995 and since then, the number of major storms markedly increased.

See “Atlantic high-activity eras: What does it mean for hurricane season?”

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Tropical Storm Norma Strengthens over Eastern Pacific

Posted on October 18, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Tropical Storm Norma Satellite Image: NOAA

Tropical Storm Norma over the eastern North Pacific appears to be strengthening with max winds now up to 60 knots as it moves NNW at 6 kts.  Max significant wave heights currently estimated near 7.5 meters (25 feet).

NOAA NHC Forecast Track for TS Norma

Norma is moving over warm ocean temperatures with weak to moderate wind shear and should become a hurricane later today and reach major hurricane strength in 24-36 hours. After about 36 hours, increasing wind shear will start to weaken Norma gradually weakening the storm to a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm as it nears Cabo San Lucas, Mexico late Sunday or early Monday. 

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Hurricane-Force Storm Low over the North Pacific

Posted on October 14, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Satellite Image North Pacific

An Intense 955 mb hurricane-force storm low (X Bolaven) centered over the west-central North Pacific is moving east at 25 kts with max winds 55 to 75 kts with seas to 15 meters (49 ft) up to 240 nm from the center. 

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis

 

Hurricane force winds are forecast to continue near the center for at least another 24 hours as the storm moves eastward and slowly weakens.  Significant shipping delays may be experience on some westbound routes.

NOAA OPC Wave Analysis

Also Read

The Other Hurricane Season  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Super Typhoon Bolaven maintaining 155 knot Winds

Posted on October 12, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Super Typhoon Bolaven

Super Typhoon Bolaven (905 mb) has maintained max winds of 155 kts with significant wave heights to 16 meters (52 feet) as it moves NE at 11 knots southeast of Iwo To, Japan.  Bolaven is a small Typhoon with hurricane force winds extending outward 30-45 nm.

Typhoon Bolaven Track Forecast

 

Bolaven will accelerate northeastward and encounter increasing wind shear as well as moving over cooler sea temperatures will steadily weaken the storm over the next few days.

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Super Typhoon Bolaven Rapidly Intensifies

Posted on October 10, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Super Typhoon Bolaven Satellite Image

Super Typhoon Bolaven has intensified rapidly over the western North Pacific northwest of Guam with max winds increasing from 80 knots to 140 knots during the past 12 hours and is producing significant wave heights to 17 meters (56 feet)!

Super Typhoon Bolaven Track Forecast

 

Bolaven is moving NNW at 12 knots and forecast to peak near 150 kts in about 12 hours before increasing shear starts to weaken the system to about 125 kts in about 36 hours as it turns towards the northeast.

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Hurricane Force Storm Expected over Central North Pacific

Posted on October 9, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 0000UTC 10 October

A rapidly developing Storm east of Japan will move NE during October 10-11th reaching into the southern Bering Sea by October 12th.  Max winds are forecast to reach hurricane strength in about 24 hours peaking at 75-80 kts with significant wave heights building to 14.5 meters (about 48 ft). Hurricane force winds will extend outward up to 300 nm from the center with minimum central pressure expected to drop to 946 mb.

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 1200UTC 11 October

This storm will likely cause some delays to North Pacific shipping lanes over the next few days.

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Super Typhoon Forecast over Western Pacific

Posted on October 9, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

TS Bolaven Satellite Image

Tropical Storm Bolaven over the western North Pacific ESE of Guam is packing winds to 60 kts  and significant wave heights to 27 ft as it moves NW at 14 kts. TS Bolaven will reach typhoon strength shortly, reaching near 100 kts in about 24-36 hrs and possibly to 130 kts in 48 hrs.  Increasing shear is expected to weaken the system after about 72 hrs. 

 

 

 

 

Along the forecast track, Bolaven will pass near or over Tinian or Saipan (north of Guam) about 0600 UTC on the 10th.

Bolaven Forecast Track

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