Super Typhoon Bolaven
Super Typhoon Bolaven (905 mb) has maintained max winds of 155 kts with significant wave heights to 16 meters (52 feet) as it moves NE at 11 knots southeast of Iwo To, Japan. Bolaven is a small Typhoon with hurricane force winds extending outward 30-45 nm.
Typhoon Bolaven Track Forecast
Bolaven will accelerate northeastward and encounter increasing wind shear as well as moving over cooler sea temperatures will steadily weaken the storm over the next few days.
Super Typhoon Bolaven Satellite Image
Super Typhoon Bolaven has intensified rapidly over the western North Pacific northwest of Guam with max winds increasing from 80 knots to 140 knots during the past 12 hours and is producing significant wave heights to 17 meters (56 feet)!
Super Typhoon Bolaven Track Forecast
Bolaven is moving NNW at 12 knots and forecast to peak near 150 kts in about 12 hours before increasing shear starts to weaken the system to about 125 kts in about 36 hours as it turns towards the northeast.
NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 0000UTC 10 October
A rapidly developing Storm east of Japan will move NE during October 10-11th reaching into the southern Bering Sea by October 12th. Max winds are forecast to reach hurricane strength in about 24 hours peaking at 75-80 kts with significant wave heights building to 14.5 meters (about 48 ft). Hurricane force winds will extend outward up to 300 nm from the center with minimum central pressure expected to drop to 946 mb.
NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 1200UTC 11 October
This storm will likely cause some delays to North Pacific shipping lanes over the next few days.
TS Bolaven Satellite Image
Tropical Storm Bolaven over the western North Pacific ESE of Guam is packing winds to 60 kts and significant wave heights to 27 ft as it moves NW at 14 kts. TS Bolaven will reach typhoon strength shortly, reaching near 100 kts in about 24-36 hrs and possibly to 130 kts in 48 hrs. Increasing shear is expected to weaken the system after about 72 hrs.
Along the forecast track, Bolaven will pass near or over Tinian or Saipan (north of Guam) about 0600 UTC on the 10th.
Bolaven Forecast Track
IR Satellite Image Typhoon Koinu
Typhoon Koinu has intensified rapidly southeast of Taiwan with max winds now to 110 kts and significant wave heights to 10.5 meters (34-35 ft). Typhoon force winds extend outward 85 nm to the southeast, 45 nm to the northeast and 55-65 nm to the west.
Koinu is moving NW at 5 kts with a 15 nm eye. Koinu may be near its peak intensity as the system is moving into an area of increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment.
After about 24 hours Koinu is forecast to turn more towards the west, reaching southern Taiwan around 1800 UTC on the 4th then passing near Kaohsiung about 6-9 hours later before emerging out over the Taiwan Strait.
JTWC Forecat Track
Satellite Image Tropical Storms Philippe and Rina
Tropical Storms Rina and Philippe continue to interact over the North Atlantic.
Rina continues to weaken with max winds 40 kts due to strong wind shear. Rina is forecast to move northwestward weakening to a depression in 24 hours and dissipating in 48-72 hours.
Forecast Track TS Rina
Philippe continues to struggle with wind shear as it drifts southwestward with max winds about 45 kts. In about 36-48 hours the wind shear should weaken, allowing Philippe to start to strengthen and begin to move northwest then northward. In 48-72 hours, Philippe could regain hurricane strength.
Forecast Track TS Philippe
NOAA Satellite Image
Twin tropical storms are over the central North Atlantic and they are close enough to each other to interact.
Tropical Storm Philippe is a disorganized storm and the center position and motion is uncertain due to the proximity of developing Tropical Storm Rina to the west. In the short term, a slow southwest motion is expected then a turn towards the north.
Currently max winds are estimated at 45 kts and the environmental conditions near Philippe are no longer unfavorable so the intensity likely will remain about the same, however, intensification is not out of the question.
NOAA NHC Forecast Track for TS Philippe
Tropical Storm Rinahas formed over the central North Pacific to the west of TS Philippe. Rina currently has max winds to 35 kts and is forecast to slowly intensify to near 50 kts over the next 48 hrs as it moves northwestward.
NOAA NHC Forecast Track for TS Rina
Tropical Storm Philippe Satellite image
Tropical Storm Philippe has strengthened slightly to 45 kt max winds as it moves west at 8 kts.
The intensity forecast is somewhat uncertain so it is possible Philippe could maintain its tropical cyclone status as it reaches the northern Leeward Islands.
Risk for Tropical Storm Force winds (34 kt/39 mph)
The official track forecast has been shifted southward in 3-5 days which likely would bring the effects of Philippe to the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico with heavy rain and gusty winds.
Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches of rain is likely across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and eastern Puerto Rico Friday through Monday. Across western Puerto Rico, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected. Heavy rainfall from Philippe may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts.
NOAA Satellite Image Tropical Storm Philippe
Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle with strong west-southwesterly wind shear and currently has max winds of 40 kts.
The low-level center is completely exposed and deep convection remains well to the east of the center.
NOAA NHC Forecast Track TS Philippe
Continued wind shear and dry air entrainment should weaken Philippe to a tropical depression or remnant low in about 72 hrs as it moves west-northwest to west northward of the Caribbean.
IR Satellite TS Ophelia
Tropical Storm Ophelia has strengthened to max winds of 60 knots and is moving north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 10 kt. Max significant wave heights are estimated near 8.5 meters (28 feet). The current track will take Ophelia’s center inland over North Carolina on Saturday, and then across portions of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. There is a chance Ophelia could briefly reach hurricane strength just prior to landfall.
Weakening is expected once the center moves inland Saturday morning and the winds should drop below tropical storm force between 24 and 36 hours while Ophelia is over southeastern Virginia.
NHC Track Forecast
Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts through Saturday night. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay.
Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.
Risk for 50 Knot (58 mph winds
