{"id":1364,"date":"2017-06-21T16:01:22","date_gmt":"2017-06-21T21:01:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/?p=1364"},"modified":"2017-06-21T16:01:22","modified_gmt":"2017-06-21T21:01:22","slug":"what-should-we-expect-for-the-2017-north-atlantic-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/2017\/06\/21\/what-should-we-expect-for-the-2017-north-atlantic-hurricane-season\/","title":{"rendered":"What should we expect for the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"blog3\"<\/a>Given the unusual occurrence of 3 named tropical cyclones prior to the end of June, one might ask what should we expect for the remainder of the 2017 hurricane season?<\/p>\n

A number of forecast centers have already made their predictions for the 2017 hurricane season with most sources predicting either a normal to somewhat above normal season.\u00a0 There is, however, quite a range in the total number of expected named storms, ranging from as low as 10 to as much as 17.\u00a0 The most likely number being 12-13 storms.\u00a0\u00a0 For hurricanes, the range is from 6-10 with the most likely number being about 6 hurricanes.\u00a0 For major hurricanes, estimates range between 1 and 4, the most likely number being 2 or 3.<\/p>\n

\"Various<\/a>

Various 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forcasts<\/p><\/div>\n

One factor most forecasters are looking at is that there will be either a weak El Nino or as neutral ENSO conditions will prevail during the peak of this year\u2019s season as well as warmer than normal SST across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.\u00a0 If we have a weak\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o, then the likelihood is for a normal to somewhat below normal season. If, however, as predicted by NOAA, the current neutral ENSO conditions prevail, then a somewhat more active season is possible.<\/p>\n

\"NOAA<\/a>

NOAA ENSO Forecast<\/p><\/div>\n

For this up-coming season, I have been looking at the SST Anomalies over the North Atlantic which have been showing a trend for cooler than normal temperatures north of about 40N latitude while mostly warmer than normal SST prevail to the south.\u00a0 If this continues, there should be a tendency for high pressure areas that move off New England or Canada to be enhanced which will tend to block or delay tropical cyclones from turning northeastward.\u00a0 This, in turn, would suggest a higher risk for storms moving northward over the western North Atlantic to threaten the US East Coast.<\/p>\n

\"Current<\/a>

Current SST Anomalies<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Given the unusual occurrence of 3 named tropical cyclones prior to the end of June, one might ask what should we expect for the remainder of the 2017 hurricane season? A number of forecast centers have already made their predictions … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3,10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1364"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1364"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1364\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1375,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1364\/revisions\/1375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}