{"id":2728,"date":"2021-06-03T20:56:38","date_gmt":"2021-06-04T01:56:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/?p=2728"},"modified":"2021-06-04T14:10:42","modified_gmt":"2021-06-04T19:10:42","slug":"2021-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/2021\/06\/03\/2021-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"2021 North Atlantic Hurricane forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Hurricane<\/a>

NOAA GOES-East image Hurricane Laura<\/p><\/div>\n

Each spring there are numerous government and private organizations that undertake the task of predicting the North Atlantic Hurricane season.\u00a0 This year, the 2021 North Atlantic hurricane forecasts are calling for another above-normal hurricane season with between 12 and 20 named storms.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"2021<\/a>

2021 NOAA NHC Atlantic Tropical Cyclone names<\/p><\/div>\n

What factors influence the hurricane season?<\/b><\/h2>\n

There are several large-scale atmospheric systems that tend to enhance the Atlantic hurricane season such as low vertical wind shear,\u00a0 high sea surface temperatures and high mid-level moisture.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Warmer than normal ocean temperatures are favorable for hurricane formation and i<\/span>ntensification. A warmer Tropical North Atlantic also can create lower air pressures and reduced trade winds which enhance tropical development.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another factor is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"El<\/a>

El NINO: NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)<\/p><\/div>\n

ENSO is driven by changes in ocean temperature in the tropical Pacific, where warmer than average conditions (El Ni\u00f1o) in the Central and Eastern Pacific tend to increase vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic and thus dampen tropical cyclone development. \u00a0 During the cooler La Ni\u00f1a phase, vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic is reduced which tends to favor tropical cyclone development.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Changes in precipitation patterns over the Sahel region of North Africa can also affect vertical wind shear over the Atlantic hurricane producing area. Years with higher Sahel rainfall have been associated with more active hurricane seasons.\u00a0 Also, episodes of dust from the Sahara tend to reduce Atlantic sea surface temperature and are also associated with very dry air, both factors tend to reduce activity.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

On June 18, 2020, NASA-NOAA\u2019s Suomi NPP satellite captured this visible image of the large light brown plume of Saharan dust over the North Atlantic Ocean. The image showed that the dust from Africa\u2019s west coast extended almost to the Lesser Antilles in the western North Atlantic Ocean.
Credits: NASA Worldview<\/p><\/div>\n

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Below is a summary of the various\u00a0 2021 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for the North Atlantic:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

2021 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecasts<\/p><\/div>\n

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In addition, Colorado State University also provides a forecast by county for\u00a0Tropical Cyclone Impact\u00a0<\/a> (defined as one or more storms within 50 miles of location)<\/p>\n

Sources<\/strong><\/h3>\n

NOAA National Hurricane Center<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Colorado State University (CSU)<\/a>\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

University of Arizona<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Penn State University<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AccuWeather\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

North Carolina State University<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

The Weather Channel<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

UK Met Office<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Each spring there are numerous government and private organizations that undertake the task of predicting the North Atlantic Hurricane season.\u00a0 This year, the 2021 North Atlantic hurricane forecasts are calling for another above-normal hurricane season with between 12 and 20 … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[73,4,3,10],"tags":[27,9,14],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2728"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2728"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2741,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2728\/revisions\/2741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oceanweatherservices.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}