Intense rainfall over northern Italy May 16, 2023
Intense rainfall in mid-May resulted in severe flooding in the northern Italian region of Emilia-Romagna displacing over 30,000 people and killing 14. Six months’ worth of rain was reported in about 36 hours from 16 May resulting in over 300 landslides and flooding of many fields and roads.
The cause of the excessive rainfall was a vigorous cut-off upper-level low over the Tyrrhenian Sea which allowed a strong jet to funnel moisture from the Mediterranean Sea northward over the Adriatic Sea and into northern Italy where intense rains fell, particularly over the Emilia Romagna region.
500 mb jet via https://www.ventusky.com/
Whether any of this can be attributed to climate change is highly uncertain.
Statements like “Whether any of this can be attributed to climate change is highly uncertain” are becoming mostly irrelevant anymore. The facts are, the climate HAS changed, and everything that now happens occurs in an environment that IS a changed climate. GHG’s have increased atmospheric and ocean levels that haven’t been seen for nearly three million years. It’s not that an extreme event such as six month’s average rainfall dropping in 36 hours wouldn’t have happened without increased GHG levels, but that increased GHG’s HAVE increased temperatures, adding 7% more potential water vapor per 1 degree C rise and this is an extreme rain event under these new conditions.