Maritime Weather Outlook Indian Ocean

Posted on January 20, 2022 by Fred Pickhardt
A ridge of high pressure prevails between 30S and 40S latitudes. A low center southeast of Madagascar is producing strong to gale force winds south and southwest of the center. This low is forecast to weaken and drift N-NE. South of the ridge strong to gale force westerlies will prevail.

Indian Ocean Surface Wind and pressure. Image credit windy.com

Tropical cyclone development is possible during the next week near the north coast of Madagascar and also in the central South Indian Ocean.

Global Tropics Benefits/Hazards NOAA CPC Jan 19-25 2022

Posted in Meteorology, Tropical Cyclones, Weather Routing | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Heavy swell expected off South Africa

Posted on January 18, 2022 by Fred Pickhardt

Intense storms over the South Atlantic will be producing heavy 5-8 meter long-period swells of 12-15 seconds from the Southwest in the waters off South Africa during the next couple of days.  Wave heights likely will be enhanced within the Agulhas current.

Significant wave heights. Image credit windy.com

Posted in Meteorology, Ocean Storms, Weather Routing | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Strong Westerlies continue south of 40 North in Western Pacific

Posted on January 18, 2022 by Fred Pickhardt

The upper-level Jet continues to be displaced south of 40 N latitude over the western and central North Pacific which will result in persistent gale to storm force (briefly hurricane force) westerlies between 30N and 40N latitudes.  Westbound shipping traffic may experience additional delays. 

NOAA OPC 500 mb Forecast Chart

NOAA OPC Significant Wave Height Forecast

Posted in Meteorology, Weather Routing | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Upper-Level Block shunts storm tracks northward away UK

Posted on January 17, 2022 by Fred Pickhardt

The upper-level Omega Block is re-establishing over the northeastern North Atlantic with a semi-stationary upper cut-off low situated south of the Azores for the next several days which will shunt low tracks N-NE towards Greenland and Iceland and away from the UK and Northwest Europe. 

Omega Block over the northeastern North Atlantic

NOAA OPC 72 hour Surface Forecast

 

The Omega block is an upper-air pattern where the strong wind belt looks like the Greek letter Omega  Ω .  

The Omega block is  often associated with two cut-off lows with one blocking high sandwiched between them.  Storm tracks will be diverted northward instead of eastward with semi-stationary surface lows situated to the southwest and southeast of the block (in the northern hemisphere).

Posted in Meteorology, Weather Routing | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Hurricane Force Storm over western North Atlantic

Posted on January 15, 2022 by Fred Pickhardt

A rapidly deepening storm off the US East Coast will move NE rapidly producing winds of 50-65 knots increasing to 60-70 knots over the next 24 hours.  Heavy freezing spray conditions likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence as well as the waters around Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

NOAA OPC 1200 UTC Surface Analysis

 

 

NOAA OPC 24 Hr Surface Forecast

 

Posted in Ocean Storms, Weather Routing | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Intense Storm forecast across Newfoundland

Posted on January 12, 2022 by Fred Pickhardt

A developing storm low is forecast off the USEC during the  next 48 hours  producing   storm force winds increasing to hurricane force with heavy freezing spray conditions likely along the coasts of Newfoundland and Nova Scotia as the storm moves N-NE across Newfoundland and off the coast of Labrador 15th-16th January.

NOAA OPC 48 hour Surface Forecast

 

 

NOAA OPC 72 hour Surface Forecast

Posted in Ocean Storms, Weather Routing | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Indian Ocean Maritime Weather Outlook

Posted on January 12, 2022 by Fred Pickhardt

Moderate to fresh northeasterly Monsoon prevails over Arabian Sea. Prevailing high pressure ridge extends across the South Indian Ocean between 30S to 42S latitudes. Moderate to fresh easterlies prevail north of the ridge except becoming fresh to strong southeast of a weak low expected to develop southeast of Madagascar. Possible tropical cyclone development near 15 S/90E over the weekend. South of 42 S fresh to near gale westerlies likely.

Forecast 1200 UTC Friday 145 January

Posted in Meteorology, Weather Routing | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Blocking High Pressure Continues over UK

Posted on January 12, 2022 by Fred Pickhardt

A strong blocking high continues over the UK with a ridge eastward into North Europe. This pattern will continue shunting lows north-northeast towards Iceland for at least a few more days before gradually weakening.

NOAA OPC Eastern North Atlantic Surface Analysis

Posted in Meteorology, Weather Routing | Tagged | Leave a comment

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany has formed north of Cairns, Australia

Posted on January 9, 2022 by Fred Pickhardt

TS Tiffany IR image NOAA

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany has formed north of Cairns, Australia and is rapidly deepening as it moves west at 7 knots with max winds currently at 50 knots.  Conditions favor continued development until landfall around 0900 UTC 9 January with max winds about 60 knots. 

 

Thereafter, Tiffany will weaken overland but will emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria where it will re-strengthen and possibly reach hurricane intensity just prior to a 2nd landfall near Groote Eylandt in about 72 hours. 

TS Tiffany Forecast Track (JTWC)

Posted in Ocean Storms, Tropical Cyclones | Tagged , | Leave a comment

North Pacific Maritime Weather Outlook

Posted on January 9, 2022 by Fred Pickhardt

Upper-Level Jet

The upper-level jet continues to be displaced south of 40 N latitude across the western and central North Pacific.

NOAA OPC 500 mb Forecast Chart

Surface Weather

As a result, storm tracks are racing eastward along 35N-40N latitudes until near 160W before turning northeastward.  Frequent gale to storm westerlies can be expected near and southward of the low tracks with the risk for brief periods of hurricane force winds and associated high seas. 

NOAA OPC 48 hour Surface Weather Forecast

Shipping

As a result, both westbound and eastbound traffic will experience delays, especially westbound traffic from the Panama Canal to Asia.  Westbound traffic from US North west may be able to take advantage of shorter Great Circle routes.

 

Posted in Meteorology, Ocean Storms, Weather Routing | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment