Tag Archives: Tropical Cyclone

The Great Tampa Gale of 1848

Posted on September 7, 2025 by Fred Pickhardt

The air hung heavy and still on the morning of Saturday, September 23, 1848, a stillness that felt less like peace and more like a held breath. The few hundred residents of the tiny village of Tampa and the soldiers stationed at Fort Brooke, surrounded by a largely unsettled Florida wilderness, had no modern warnings. The only signals were the phosphorescent glow that lit up the bay that night and an ominous, oppressive sultriness. Continue reading →

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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

Posted on April 17, 2025 by Fred Pickhardt

As of April, conditions in the North Atlantic appear to favor a somewhat more active season than normal, however, less active than in 2024. Several hurricane outlooks have already been published, predicting between 10 and 18 named storms with 5-10 becoming hurricanes and 2-6 becoming major hurricanes. The normal season will produce 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Continue reading →

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2024 Hurricane Risk for Tampa Bay Update

Posted on June 3, 2024 by Fred Pickhardt

On average, a tropical storm will pass within 50 miles of Tampa Bay about once every other year, while hurricanes pass within 50 miles about once every 4 years and major hurricanes, about once every decade. Direct major hurricane hits on Tampa Bay are rare, with only 2 ever recorded; a Cat 4 storm in 1848 and a Cat 3 storm in 1921.  Continue reading →

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Top Tropical Cyclone Tracking Sites

Posted on May 3, 2024 by Fred Pickhardt

Now that the hurricane season is approaching, here are my thoughts on the best tropical  cyclone  tracking sites: Continue reading →

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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Update

Posted on April 11, 2024 by Fred Pickhardt

The 2024 Hurricane Season outlook is predicted to be well above normal due to two primary factors: El Nino and warm ocean water. Currently, a weakening El Niño is expected to transition to a La Niña state by late summer or early autumn. This transition should produce low wind shear conditions, favoring tropical cyclone development over the North Atlantic. Continue reading →

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La Niña and the Azores-Bermuda Ridge: Impact on the 2024 Hurricane Season

Posted on February 22, 2024 by Fred Pickhardt

Currently, El Niño is weakening rapidly, and meteorologists anticipate the development of a La Niña event by the main 2024 hurricane season. La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Just how will this transition affect the Atlantic hurricane environment? Continue reading →

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Catastrophic Cat 5 Otis makes landfall near Acapulco

Posted on October 25, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Major Hurricane Otis continued to strengthen until near the time of landfall in southern Mexico near Acapulco, reaching a catastrophic Category 5 with max wind of 145 kts (165 mph).  Continue reading →

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Hurricane Otis nearing Cat 5 Strength

Posted on October 24, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Hurricane Otis is undergoing very rapid development with max winds currently at 125 kts with a min pressure of 941 mb and significant wave heights estimated 12-13 meters (40-43 feet) as it moves NNW at 7 kts. Continue reading →

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Tropical Storm Otis continues to Develop south of Acapulco

Posted on October 24, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Tropical Storm Otis continues to become better organized SSE of Acapulco, Mexico as it moves NNW at 7 kts. Max winds now at 60 kts with significant wave heights estimated near 7 meters (23 ft). Continue reading →

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Tropical Cyclone Hamoon rapidly deepened over Bay of Bengal

Posted on October 23, 2023 by Fred Pickhardt

Tropical Cyclone 06B (Hamoon) has deepened rapidly over the Bay of Bengal today and now has reached a max wind of 70 kts Continue reading →

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