Storm Forecast along US East Coast by Saturday

Posted on January 19, 2016 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12UTC 23 January 2016

A deepening storm low will move off the US Middle Atlantic Coast early Saturday producing significant snowfalls over much of the Middle Atlantic States and southern New England.  East and north of the low storm force winds are likely from coastal VA to coastal MA as well as over the offshore waters.  Below NOAA ww3 model showing winds of gale to storm force from off the coast of Delaware to Cape Cod by 18UTC Saturday.

NOAA ww3 model Wind speed in knots for 18UTC 23 Jan 2016

 

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Hurricane Alex Forms over North Atlantic

Posted on January 14, 2016 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA IR Satellite image Hurricane Alex

Alex deepened overnight and became a hurricane this morning.  As of 21UTC today, Alex was packing winds to 75 knots with hurricane force winds extending outward about 20NM east of the center. During the next 12-24 hours Alex should transition back into an extratropical storm low.  Alex is expected to maintain hurricane strength while passing near or over the Azores early Friday.

Post-Tropical Alex will turn northwestward, later westward and may regain hurricane force winds as an extratropical storm between the 16th and 17th.

NOAA OPC 48 Hour Surface Forecast

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Monster North Pacific Storm starting to weaken

Posted on January 14, 2016 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 18UTC 14 January 2016

The dangerous storm moving across the central North Pacific peaked today at about 12UTC with a minimum pressure of 940MB with winds of 65-90 knots and seas 11.5-18 meters (38-60 feet) between 120NM and 240NM south and southwest of the center.  By 18UTC the central pressure had filled a bit to 944MB and continued gradual weakening is forecast as it move northeastward over the next 24 hours into the eastern North Pacific.  This system may be close to a record for wind speed for a non-tropical system near 40N latitude.

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North Pacific Storm morning update

Posted on January 14, 2016 by Fred Pickhardt

Image credit NOAA OPC

The intense and dangerous North Pacific storm continues to pack winds to 90 knots and wave heights to 50 feet (15.2 meters) this morning.  From NOAA OPC’s post this morning :

“The 0600 UTC GOES-W enhanced infrared satellite image along with a portion of the 06Z OPC Pacific surface analysis shows a powerful 948-mb hurricane force low pressure system in the central Pacific. In addition, the 0849 UTC ASCAT wind retrievals from this morning showed an impressive wind field with values up to 90 knots (~104 mph) in the strong cold advection in the south quadrant of the low center. The 0542 UTC AltiKa altimeter pass from that same area was equally spectacular with values up to 50 feet!

As a reminder, a system is classified as “hurricane force” when the winds are equal to or greater than 64 knots (~74 mph).”

Please visit the OPC’s Pacific page on the main website for additional analysis and forecast products:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml  “

Photo Credit NOAA OPC

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Dangerous North Pacific Storm 90 knot winds

Posted on January 13, 2016 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA NESDIS Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) Winds

A dangerously intense hurricane force storm over the central North Pacific is packing winds to 90 knots based on recent ASCAT satellite measurments!

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Rare January Subtropical Storm over North Atlantic

Posted on January 13, 2016 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA NHC IR Satellite photo Alex

The extratropical low that had been moving southeastward across the central North Atlantic has acquired subtropical characteristics and has been named Subtropical Storm Alex.  Alex currently has max windsof about 45 knots with little change expected over the next day or two as it drifts northward.  Alex is expected to again become an extratropical cyclone by the time it passes near the Azores. During the 15th and 16th as an extratropical storm low winds may increase on the north and east side to the range of 50-65 knots.

NOAA OPC Surface forecast 12 UTC 15 Jan 2016

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Rare Hurricane over Tropical Central Pacific

Posted on January 13, 2016 by Fred Pickhardt

JTWC Forecast TrackA rare January Hurricane (Pali) is over the tropical central North Pacific, located about 748 NM south of Johnston Island and was moving southwest at 9 knots.  Max winds are about 70 knots with hurricane force winds extending outward only about 10 miles from the center.  Max significant wave height is estimated at about 6 meters (20 feet). Gradual weakening is expected as it turns more westward over the next couple of days.

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North Pacific Storm Update

Posted on January 13, 2016 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA Wave Height Forecast 00UTC 15 January 2016

A quick update this morning – The developing storm over the central North Pacific is still forecast to reach 948 MB over the next 18-24 hours with winds increasing 65-90 knots and seas building over 16 meters (52 feet) up to 240NM west and south of the center. By 00Z/15th seas may continue to build as high as 18 Meters (59 feet) as the storm enters the eastern North Pacific.

This storm is tracking through the main North Pacific shipping lanes and all shipping interests should stay well clear of this one.

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Dangerous Central North Pacific Storm Expected

Posted on January 12, 2016 by Fred Pickhardt

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 00UTC 14 Jan 2016

A developing gale low over the western North Pacific, east of Japan will deepen rapidly over the central North Pacific reaching 958 MB by 00z/14th and 949 MB by 00Z 15th.  This will be a dangerous storm as it travels ENE across the primary North Pacific shipping lanes. Winds are forecast to be an unheard of 65-90 knots with seas building 10-16 meters (32-53 feet) within 36-48 hours within 300 NM south and southwest of the center.  Shipping interest should avoid this area.

 

NOAA OPC 48 Hour Wind Wave Forecast 12Z 14 Jan 2016

NOAA OPC Wind and Wave forecast for 12Z 14 Jan 2016 shows a large area of Storm force winds (outlined in yellow) with a very large area of hurricane force winds (Fuschia).  Max winds forecast to 90 knots with seas to 16 meters!

 

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Central Pacific hurricane force storm forecast

Posted on January 11, 2016 by Fred Pickhardt
NOAA OPC 500 MB forecast 12Z 13 Jan 2016

NOAA OPC 500 MB forecast 12Z 13 Jan 2016

A strong 500MB jet lies west to east across the North Pacific south of 40N latitude and will cause a hurricane force storm to develop over the central North Pacific shipping lanes over the next 2-3 days. Wave heights could build to 15 meters (almost 50 feet)!

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 13 Jan 2016

 

 

NOAA OPC Wind Wave Forecast

NOAA OPC Wind and Wave forecast for 12Z 14 Jan 2016 shows a large area of Storm force winds (outlined in yellow) with a very large area of hurricane force winds (Fuschia.  Winds forecast to 90 knots with seas to 16 meters!

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