NOAA NWS Satellite Image
A developing disturbance located between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to organize. Conditions favor farther development and there is high (90%) probability that a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone will form later today or Saturday as it moves towards the WNW. Currently winds are estimated to be 20-30 knots with seas 8-11 feet within 180NM northeast of the center.
NOAA NHC Tropical Cyclone Risk Chart
Satellite image TC Amos
Tropical Cyclone Amos over the South Pacific was centered about 270NM WNW of Pago Pago at 0300 UTC 23 April and was moving eastward at 8 knots with max winds of about 90 knots. Forecasts suggest that Amos will turn more towards the southeast and could reach 100 knots just before reaching the Samoan Islands in 24 hours.
Satellite image TC Fantala
As if 2100 UTC 22 April 2016 Tropical Cyclone Fantala has stalled and is forecast to once again reverse course and head back towards the west-northwest across the western South Indian Ocean. Currently Fantala is located about 432 NM north of Port Louis Mauritius with max winds of about 80 knots and is forecast to maintain hurricane strength for the next several days as it approaches the coast of Tanzania near Dar es Salaam.
Sunday update: TC Fantala now weakening rapidly and expected to dissipate later today.
Intense TS Fantala
Tropical Cyclone Fantala at 0900Z was located about 783NM NW of Port Louis, Mauritius and was moving towards the WNW at 4 kts with peak winds now about 150 knots, however, hurricane force winds remain within 15-25NM of the center. Fantala is forecast to slow weaken and re-curve towards the southeast during the next 24 hours.
Satellite photo Tropical Cyclone Fantala
Tropical Cyclone Fantala, located about 464NM north of Port Louis, Mauritius at 2100UTC 15 April was moving west at about 7 knots with max winds of 130 knots. Fantala should be near it’s max intensity during the next 12 hours, then start to gradually weaken as it turns more towards the WNW.
JTWC track forecast
NOAA OPC Forecast Chart
A rapidly deepening storm low is forecast to develop during the next 36-48 hours over the western North Pacific with winds increasing to 50-65 knots within 120NM south of the center.
Meteosat 7 image
Tropical Cyclone Emerude over the southern Indian Ocean about 768 NM ESE of Diego Garcia and was moving WNW at about 5 knots with max winds at 0900UTC 16 March of 55 knots. Low vertical wind shear and warm sea temperatures suggest that Emerude could reach wind speeds of 100 knots or more within 24-36 hours as the system stalls then starts to move back towards the east.
JTWC forecast Track
NOAA OPC Surface Analysis
A rapidly deepening storm low over the western North Pacific with winds to 60 knots within 360 NM east of the center is forecast to move northeastward with winds of 50-65 knots with seas building to near 13 meters (about 42 feet) within 240 NM south of the center.
2 Meter Temperatures - image credit weatherbell.com
The past year’s strong El Nino started to heat the tropical atmosphere starting last spring with the global temperatures following later as the heat was redistributed around the globe. The tropical temperatures peaked in early January with the global temperatures appearing to have peaked in late February.
Now we are starting to see the tropical temperatures falling slowly and will likely continue to fall as the El Nino weakens rapidly by this summer. The global temperatures should follow and start to back off as well soon.
Learn more about the role of the oceans in global warming
NOAA OPC Surface Forecast for 12 UTC 05 March 2016
A rapidly deepening storm low off the US East coast will develop storm to hurricane force winds (55-75 knots) within 150 NM west of the center this evening and Saturday as it moves towards the east-north east.
Update 00 UTC 5 March 2016: The deepening storm off the US East
Coast continues to move northeast with winds of 60-80 knots and
seas to 28 feet within 180 NM north and west of the center.
During the next 18-24 hours winds expected 50-70 knots and seas to
40 feet within 180 NM west and south of the center.
NOAA ASCAT METOP-B Satellite winds about 0100 UTC 5 March
