Are Atlantic East Coast Major Hurricanes Increasing due to Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

According to a recent article in Nature.com,  rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones and max wind speeds have significantly increased since 2001 along the US East Coast due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which have warmed the planet and oceans.

SeeObserved increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates”

 

The reality is that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO Warm Phase has more to do with this than anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

AMO Phases

During the warm phase of the AMO, the number of weak hurricanes that mature into major hurricanes increases significantly. Atlantic tropical cyclone high-activity eras have occurred from 1880 to 1900, 1945 to 1970 and 1995 to the present. Low-activity eras occurred during 1901-1930 and 1971-1994. From 1970-1990 the AMO was in the cold phase, so the number of major hurricanes was reduced. The AMO shifted from cold to warm phase in 1995 and since then, the number of major storms markedly increased.

See Atlantic high-activity eras: What does it mean for hurricane season?”

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Tropical Storm Norma Strengthens over Eastern Pacific

Tropical Storm Norma Satellite Image: NOAA

Tropical Storm Norma over the eastern North Pacific appears to be strengthening with max winds now up to 60 knots as it moves NNW at 6 kts.  Max significant wave heights currently estimated near 7.5 meters (25 feet).

NOAA NHC Forecast Track for TS Norma

Norma is moving over warm ocean temperatures with weak to moderate wind shear and should become a hurricane later today and reach major hurricane strength in 24-36 hours. After about 36 hours, increasing wind shear will start to weaken Norma gradually weakening the storm to a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm as it nears Cabo San Lucas, Mexico late Sunday or early Monday. 

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Hurricane-Force Storm Low over the North Pacific

Satellite Image North Pacific

An Intense 955 mb hurricane-force storm low (X Bolaven) centered over the west-central North Pacific is moving east at 25 kts with max winds 55 to 75 kts with seas to 15 meters (49 ft) up to 240 nm from the center. 

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis

 

Hurricane force winds are forecast to continue near the center for at least another 24 hours as the storm moves eastward and slowly weakens.  Significant shipping delays may be experience on some westbound routes.

NOAA OPC Wave Analysis

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Super Typhoon Bolaven maintaining 155 knot Winds

Super Typhoon Bolaven

Super Typhoon Bolaven (905 mb) has maintained max winds of 155 kts with significant wave heights to 16 meters (52 feet) as it moves NE at 11 knots southeast of Iwo To, Japan.  Bolaven is a small Typhoon with hurricane force winds extending outward 30-45 nm.

Typhoon Bolaven Track Forecast

 

Bolaven will accelerate northeastward and encounter increasing wind shear as well as moving over cooler sea temperatures will steadily weaken the storm over the next few days.

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Super Typhoon Bolaven Rapidly Intensifies

Super Typhoon Bolaven Satellite Image

Super Typhoon Bolaven has intensified rapidly over the western North Pacific northwest of Guam with max winds increasing from 80 knots to 140 knots during the past 12 hours and is producing significant wave heights to 17 meters (56 feet)!

Super Typhoon Bolaven Track Forecast

 

Bolaven is moving NNW at 12 knots and forecast to peak near 150 kts in about 12 hours before increasing shear starts to weaken the system to about 125 kts in about 36 hours as it turns towards the northeast.

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Hurricane Force Storm Expected over Central North Pacific

NOAA OPC Surface Analysis 0000UTC 10 October

A rapidly developing Storm east of Japan will move NE during October 10-11th reaching into the southern Bering Sea by October 12th.  Max winds are forecast to reach hurricane strength in about 24 hours peaking at 75-80 kts with significant wave heights building to 14.5 meters (about 48 ft). Hurricane force winds will extend outward up to 300 nm from the center with minimum central pressure expected to drop to 946 mb.

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 1200UTC 11 October

This storm will likely cause some delays to North Pacific shipping lanes over the next few days.

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Super Typhoon Forecast over Western Pacific

TS Bolaven Satellite Image

Tropical Storm Bolaven over the western North Pacific ESE of Guam is packing winds to 60 kts  and significant wave heights to 27 ft as it moves NW at 14 kts. TS Bolaven will reach typhoon strength shortly, reaching near 100 kts in about 24-36 hrs and possibly to 130 kts in 48 hrs.  Increasing shear is expected to weaken the system after about 72 hrs. 

 

 

 

 

Along the forecast track, Bolaven will pass near or over Tinian or Saipan (north of Guam) about 0600 UTC on the 10th.

Bolaven Forecast Track

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Typhoon Koinu has rapidly strengthened southeast of Taiwan

IR Satellite Image Typhoon Koinu

Typhoon Koinu has intensified rapidly southeast of Taiwan with max winds now to 110 kts and significant wave heights to 10.5 meters (34-35 ft). Typhoon force winds extend outward 85 nm to the southeast, 45 nm to the northeast and 55-65 nm to the west. 

 

 

 

 

Koinu is moving NW at 5 kts with a 15 nm eye. Koinu may be near its peak intensity as the system is moving into an area of increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment. 

After about 24 hours Koinu is forecast to turn more towards the west, reaching southern Taiwan around 1800 UTC on the 4th then passing near Kaohsiung about 6-9 hours later before emerging out over the Taiwan Strait.

JTWC Forecat Track

 

Latest Advisories from JTWC

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Tropical Storms Rina & Philippe Update

Satellite Image Tropical Storms Philippe and Rina

Tropical Storms Rina and Philippe continue to interact over the North Atlantic.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical Storm Rina

Rina continues to weaken with max winds 40 kts due to strong wind shear. Rina is forecast to move northwestward weakening to a depression in 24 hours and dissipating in 48-72 hours.

Forecast Track TS Rina

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical Storm Philippe 

Philippe continues to struggle with wind shear as it drifts southwestward with max winds about 45 kts. In about 36-48 hours the wind shear should weaken, allowing Philippe to start to strengthen and begin to move northwest then northward. In 48-72 hours, Philippe could regain hurricane strength.

Forecast Track TS Philippe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Twin Tropical Storms over the North Atlantic

NOAA Satellite Image

Twin tropical storms are over the central North Atlantic and they are close enough to each other to interact.

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical Storm Philippe

Tropical Storm Philippe is a disorganized storm and the center position and motion is uncertain due to the proximity of developing Tropical Storm Rina to the west. In the short term, a slow southwest motion is expected then a turn towards the north.

Currently max winds are estimated at 45 kts and the environmental conditions near Philippe are no longer unfavorable so the intensity likely will remain about the same, however, intensification is not out of the question.

NOAA NHC Forecast Track for TS Philippe

 

Tropical Storm Rina

Tropical Storm Rinahas formed over the central North Pacific to the west of TS Philippe. Rina currently has max winds to 35 kts and is forecast to slowly intensify to near 50 kts over the next 48 hrs as it moves northwestward.  

NOAA NHC Forecast Track for TS Rina

 

Latest Advisories

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