Hurricane Georgette Satellite Image NOAA
Hurricane Georgette over the eastern North Pacific now has max winds of about 105 knots as it moves towards the northwest at about 8 knots. Georgette is forecast to weaken over the next few days falling below hurricane strength in about 48 hours.
Latest Forecast Track http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?5-daynl#contents
RADAR depiction from Taiwan
Super Typhoon Nepartak at 1200 UTC was located about 196 NM SSE of Taipei, Taiwan and was moving WNW at 8 knots. Maximum winds were estimated to be 140 knots. Typhoon force winds extend outward 45 NM to the southwest and 60 NM to the northeast while 50 knot or higher winds extended outward 70 NM southwest and 90 NM to the northeast. Max significant wave height estimated to be 42 feet (almost 13 meters). Nepartak is expected to make landfall over southern Taiwan between 2100 UTC on the 7th and 0000 UTC on the 8th.
JTWC Forecast Traxk
NOAA IR Satellite photo of Super Typhoon Nepartak
Super Typhoon Nepartak over the western North Pacific was located about 419 NM southeast of Taipei, Taiwan and was moving towards the WNW at 16 knots. Max winds currently are estimated to be 150 knots, however, typhoon force winds extend outward only about 40 NM and 50 knot or higher winds about 60-65 NM. Forecasts suggest gradual weakening as Nepartak nears Taiwan between 15UTC and 21UTC on the 7th with max winds about 110-135 knots.
JTWC track forecast
Tropical Storm Blas deepening rapidly over eastern North Pacifc Tropical Storm Blas is developing rapidly over tropical eastern North Pacific. Blas is forecast to move west-northwest reaching hurricane force on Monday and reach major hurricane strength by Tuesday.
Latest NHC Forecast Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/150632.shtml?3-daynl
Tropical Storm Nepartak has formed over the western North Pacific with max winds estimated at 40 knots. Nepartak was moving toward the northwest at 11 knots. Nepartak is forecast to reach typhoon strength in about 24-36 hours and near 100 knots by the 6th.
Latest Forecast Track https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeeds-portlet/img/jtwc/products/wp0216.gif
500 MB Height Anomaly Forecast Aug-Oct weatherbell.com
The extended 500 mb height anomalies forecast (via weatherbell.com) suggest strong blocking likely over the northeastern part of North America during the peak of the 2016 hurricane season. This blocking was prevalent during 2005 when we set a record for named tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic including several US landfalling storms. According to Joe Bastardi, Weatherbell meteorologist, regarding this season “SST analog and to some extent many of the other climate models, are pointing at the high impact we have [forecast].”
2005 500 MB Anamaly Aug-Oct via NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Other conditions are not the same so we likely won’t see a large number of storms, however, the blocking ridge may steer whatever storms that develop into the Gulf of Mexico and/or near the US East Coast.
Fred Pickhardt
Ocean Weather Services
A slow low pressure system off the US East Coast is producing gale force winds to 45 knots with seas to 20 feet between the US East Coast and Bermuda.
NOAA OPC Forecast Chart
A developing low forecast off of
Cape Hatteras will produce
strong to gale force winds within
300-420 NM north and northeast
of the center over the next 24-48 hours.
TS Colin Forecast Track (NOAA NHC)
Tropical Storm Colin over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and was moving towards the NNE at 12 knots with max winds of 45 knots (about 50 mph). Gale force or higher winds extend outward 160NM east of the center.
Colin remains poorly organized with most of the wind and rain located east of the center and the center location is uncertain. Colin will make landfall, most likely along the Florida West Coast in the Big Bend area this evening. The major effect of Colin over Florida will be heavy rainfall and the risk for isolated tornadoes.
Risk for encountering tropical storm (gale force) winds.
NOAA Satellite photo
A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea has been moving W-NW. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop near or over the Yucatan Channel and there is a 60% risk that a tropical cyclone will form over the weekend then move north or northeastward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards Florida early next week. Locally heavy rains and some flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days. There is also a possibility this system may reach tropical storm intensity prior to reaching the west coast of Florida.
