Super Typhoon Maria threatens Taiwan and China

Satellite image Super Typhoon Maria

Super Typhoon Maria over the western North Pacific was centered about 369nm S-SW of Iwo To and was moving towards the northwest at 11 knots.  Max winds have reached 130 knots with hurricane force winds extending outward  35-55 nm while 50 knot or higher winds extend outward 70-100 nm.

Maria is forecast to continue to move NW but gradually turn more towards the west and is forecast to pass just off the northern coast of Taiwan on the 10th around 18-22 UTC before making landfall on the coast of China about 06 UTC on the 11th.

JTWC forecast track for Super Typhoon Maria

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Update: Beryl weakens

TS Beryl IR Satellite Image: Source NOAA

Tropical Storm Beryl has weakened since yesterday and now has max winds of only 40 knots. Beryl is accelerating and now moving towards the WNW at 16 knots and continues to move into an area of increasing vertical wind shear and drier air so it is forecast calls to continue weakening, with Beryl forecast to weaken to a depression just after moving through the Lesser Antilles and then degenerate into a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

TS Beryl Forecast Track via NHC

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Hurricane Beryl Threatens Lesser Antilles

NOAA Satellite image Hurricane Beryl

Beryl has deepened to hurricane strength over the tropical North Atlantic.  Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye with max winds of about 70 knots and is moving westward at about 13 knots. Beryl’s wind field is very small with hurricane force winds extending outward only 10 nm to the northeast and damaging 50 knot winds only 10 nm to the south and 15 nm to the north.

Current thinking is that it is likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours.

NHC Forecast Track Hurricane Beryl

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Tropical Storm Prapiroon Update

TS Prapiroon Satellite image via JTWC

Tropical Storm Prapiroon, located about 84 NM southwest of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa was nearing typhoon strength with max winds of 60 knots.  Prapiroon was moving N-NW at 11 knots but is forecast to turn more towards the north then northeast passing just east of Pusan, South Korea between 0600UTC and 0900UTC 03 July.  Prapiroon should reach it’s peak intensity 65-75 knots during the next 18-24 hours.

JTWC Forecast Track

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Tropical Storm Prapiroon to threaten South Korea

TS Prapiroon Satellite image via JTWC

Tropical Storm Prapiroon, located over the western North Pacific has been deepening and moving towards the northwest at abut 5 knots.  Prapiroon currently has max winds of about 45 knots and is forecast to reach typhoon strength during the next 36 hours.

The forecast track shows Prapiroon turning more towards the north passing west of Okinawa about 0600 UTC on the 1st then making landfall over South Korea between 0600UTC and 1200UTC on the 2nd.

Forecast Track via JTWC

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Hurricane Bud Forecast to weaken

Satellite image Hurricane Bud

Hurricane Bud reached peak intensity around 0600 UTC with a max wind of about 110 knots as it moved towards the northwest at about 5 knots. Hurricane Bud is forecast move in a north-northwestward direction for the next 36 hours then turn more towards the north.  Bud will be moving over cooler water and will gradually weaken and move across Baja California Sur as a tropical storm on Thursday.

NHC Forecast Track Hurricane Bud

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North Atlantic Cooling will affect the Hurricane Season

Bermuda High

Bermuda High and Tropical Cyclone tracks

The main tropical development area for the North Atlantic continues to cool relative to recent averages suggesting a stronger than normal Bermuda-Azores ridge. When this high pressure ridge is stronger or displaced west, as it appears to be now, tropical storm formation is less likely due to

NCEP Reanalysis mean surface pressure April 2018. Image credit https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

stronger wind shear and cooler SST temperatures caused by stronger trade winds, however, when tropical cyclones do form, a strong Bermuda-Azores high will tend to cause storms to track farther to the west increasing landfall risks.

 

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly May 2018

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Subtropical Storm Alberto forms

NOAA Satellite Image

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean to Subtropical Storm Alberto.

The initial intensity has been set at 35 knots with movement towards the north-northeast at 5 knots. Alberto is forecast to slowly deepen reaching max winds of 50-60 knots over the next 72 hours as well as turning more towards the north then north-northwest.

TS Alberto forecast track from NOAA NHC

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New Tropical Cyclone forms over Arabian Sea

Satellite image of developing tropical cyclone

Tropical Cyclone 02A has formed over the Arabian Sea about 610 nm soth of Masirah Island and was moving towards the NNW at about 7 knots.

Max winds were 35 knots, however, conditions favor deepening and is forecast to reach hurricane intensity in 24-36 hours. The forecast track takes the center inland over Salaha, Oman on the 26th around 0600 UTC.

JTWC forecast track

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Tropical Cyclone Sagar moving over Gulf of Aden

Tropical Cyclone Sagar located today over the Gulf of Aden

Tropical Cyclone Sagar was located today over the Gulf of Aden about 181 nm east of Aden, Yeman and was moving towards the west-southwest at 7 knots. Max winds are estimated to be 45 knots with gale force winds extending outward 75 nm to the northwest and 40 nm to the southeast. Some gradually strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours.

Forecast suggest that Sagar will begin to weaken after 24 hours as it continues to move west-southwest.

JTWC forecast track

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